Why Buffett Is in Railroads

Baseline Scenario Blog: Buffett and the G20

Buffett’s big investment in railroads looks like a shrewd way to bet on growth in emerging markets – which is where most incremental demand for US raw materials and grain comes from.  It’s also a polite way to bet against the dollar or, even more politely, on an appreciation of the renminbi. 

When China finally gives way to market pressure and appreciates 20-30 percent, their commodity purchases will go through the roof.   You can add more land, improve yields, or change the crop mix of choice (as relative prices move), but it all has to run through Mr. Buffett’s railroad.

Of course, Buffett is nicely hedged against dollar inflation – this would likely feed into higher inflation around the world, and commodities will also become more appealing. 

And Mr. Buffett is really betting against the more technology intensive, labor intensive, and industrial based part of our economy.  If that were to do well, the dollar would strengthen and resources would be pulled out of the commodity sector – the more “modern” part of our production is not now commodity-intensive.

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