Publications

Peer Reviewed Publications

[30] Forthcoming. “An Evaluation of the 2016 Election Polls in the United States: AAPOR Task Force Report,” Public Opinion Quarterly. With Courtney Kennedy, Mark Blumenthal, Scott Clement, Claire Durand, Charles Franklin, Kyley McGeeney, Lee Miringoff, Kristen Olson, Doug Rivers, Lydia Saad, G. Evans Witt, and Christopher Wlezien.

[29] Forthcoming. “Lawmaking in the U.S: American Legislatures and Lawmaking, 1997 – 2011,” Journal of Public Policy. With Mark D. Richardson.

[28] 2018. “The Politics of Policy: The Initial Mass Political Effects of Medicaid Expansion in the States,” American Political Science Review 112(1): 167-85. With Michael W. Sances.

[27] 2018. “Characterizing the Ideology of Federal Agencies: An Approach to Measuring Difficult-to-Observe Organizational Characteristics.” Journal of Politics 80(1):303-308. With David E. Lewis and Mark D. Richardson.

[26] Forthcoming. “Does Who Owns the News Matter for the News?,” Political Communication. With Allison Archer.

[25] 2017. “Coding and Scaling the Ideological Direction and Content of Policies,” Annual Review of Political Science 20:433-450.

[24] 2017. “A House Divided? Political Conflict and Polarization in the U.S. Congress, 1877-2011.” American Journal of Political Science. 60(5): 866-898. With David Bateman and John Lapinski.

[23] 2016. “Assessing the Variation of Formal Military Alliances in the International System, 1816-2000.” Journal of Conflict Resolution. 60(5): 866-898. With Brett Benson.

[22] 2015. “Public Information, Public Learning, and Public Opinion: The Prospect for Bottom-Up Accountability in Education Policy.” Journal of Public Policy. 35(3): 355-385. With Jason Grissom.

[21] 2014. “The National News Media’s Effect on Congress: How Fox News Affected Representatives in Congress,”Journal of Politics. 76(4): 928-943. With Ted Enamorado.

[20] 2014. “Political Influence in the Bureaucracy: The Irony of Congressional Oversight,” American Journal of Political Science. 58(2): 387-401. With David E. Lewis and Jennifer Selin. Appendix.

[19] 2013. “Robo-Polls: Taking Cues from Traditional Sources?” PS: Political Science & Politics. 46(2): 333-337. With Steve Rogers.

[18] 2012. “Congress, Lawmaking and the Fair Labor Standards Act, 1971-2000,” American Journal of Political Science. 56(2): 355-372.. Appendix.

[17] 2012. “Separated Powers in the United States: The Ideology of Agencies, Presidents and Congress,”American Journal of Political Science. 56(2): 341-354. With Anthony Bertelli, Christian Grose, David Lewis, and David Nixon.

[16] 2012.  “Using Roll Calls to Test Models of Politics,” Annual Review of Political Science, Vol 15: 79-99,

[15] 2011. “More A Molehill than a Mountain: the Effects of the Blanket Primary on Elected Officials’ Behavior From California,” Journal of Politics. 73(3): 915-930. With Will Bullock. Appendix.

[14] 2009. “To Simulate or NOMINATE?” Legislative Studies Quarterly. XXXIV (4): 593-622. With Simon Jackman.

[13] 2008. “Laws and Roll Calls in the U.S. Congress, 1889-1994.” Legislative Studies Quarterly. XXXIII(4): 511-542. With John Lapinski.

[12] 2008. “Design, Inference, and the Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism,” American Political Science Review. 102 (2): 269-74. With Scott Ashworth, Adam Meirowitz and Kristopher W. Ramsay.

[11] 2008. “Expert Opinion, Agency Characteristics and Agency Preferences,” Political Analysis. 16 (1): 3-20. With David E. Lewis.

[10] 2007. “Lawmaking and Roll Calls,” Journal of Politics 69(2):455-67. Appendix.

[9] 2007. “Does Advertising Exposure Affect Turnout?” Quarterly Journal of Political Science. 2(2): 27-41. With Scott Ashworth. Appendix.

[8] 2006. “Representation in Congress: Constituents and Roll Calls in the 106th House,” Journal of Politics 68 (2):397-409.

[7] 2006. “Measuring Legislative Accomplishment, 1877-1994,” American Journal of Political Science 50 (1):232-49. With John Lapinski.

[6] 2004. “The Statistical Analysis of Roll Call Voting: A Unified Approach,” American Political Science Review 98 (2) 355-70. With Simon Jackman and Doug Rivers.

[5] 2004. “Testing Accounts of Legislative Strategic Voting: The Compromise of 1790,” American Journal of Political Science 48(4):675-89. With Adam Meirowitz.

[4] 2004. “An Experimental Study of Political Advertising Effects in the 2000 Presidential Election,” Journal of Politics 66(1): 67-96. With John Lapinski.

[3] 2004. “The Most Liberal Senator“?: Analyzing and Interpreting Congressional Roll Calls,” PS: Political Science & Politics XXXVII (4): 805-12. With Simon Jackman and Doug Rivers.

[Reprinted in 2005. Quantitative Methods in Practice: Readings from PS. David Rochefort ed. Washington, DC: CQ Press. Pp 105-115]

[2] 2003. “Integrating Voting Theory and Roll Call Analysis: A Framework,” Political Analysis 11 (4): 381-396. With Adam Meirowitz.

[1] 2001. “Agenda Constrained Legislator Ideal Points and the Spatial Voting Model,” Political Analysis 9 (3):242-260. With Adam Meirowitz. Addendum

Non-Peer Reviewed Publications

[10] Forthcoming. “Measuring Political and Policy Preferences: Using Item Response Scaling” in Analytics, Policy and Governance edited by Jennifer Bachner, Kathryn Wagner Hill, and Benjamin Ginsberg. Yale University Press,New Haven: CT.

[9] Forthcoming. “Where Measures Meet History: Party Polarization During the New Deal and Fair Deal.” Governing in a Polarized Era: Elections, Parties, and Representation in America, Eric Schickler and Alan Gerber eds. pp. 191-219. With Ira Katznelson and John S. Lapinski.

[8] Forthcoming. “Representation.” Oxford Handbook of American Political Development. With Larry Bartels and John Geer.

[7] 2007. “Measuring Significant Legislation, 1877-1948,” in Process, Party and Policymaking Vol. 2: Further New Perspectives on the History of Congress, David Brady and Matthew McCubbins eds. Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press. pp.361-378. With John Lapinski.

[6] 2006. “Review of Spatial Models of Parliamentary Voting by Keith T. Poole,” The Political Methodologist 14(1):21-24.

[5] 2005. “Afterword for `The Most Liberal Senator’,” in Quantitative Methods in Practice: Readings from PS. David Rochefort ed. Washington, DC: CQ Press. pp. 116-117.

[4] 2004. “Reflections on Methods Training at Stanford,” in The Political Methodologist 12(2):11-13.

[3] 2003. “Review of Bayesian Data Analysis by Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, and Donald B. Rubin,” The Political Methodologist 11(2):6-7.

[2] 2003. “Chebyshev’s Inequality,” “Proxy Variable,” “Regression Plane,” “Regression On,” “Sphericity Assumption” in Encyclopedia of Social Science Research Methods, Michael Lewis-Beck, Alan Bryman and Tim Futing Liao eds. NY,NY:Sage.

[1] 2002. “Testing Television Advertising Using Interactive Television: The Effectiveness of Political Advertisements” in Excellence 2002 in International Research, Deborah S. Fellows ed. Amsterdam, Netherlands: World Association of Research Professionals. pp. 273-90. With John Lapinski.