Posted by John Vrooman on Wednesday, February 25, 2015 in National Hockey League.

Interview with NY Times.

Would you, even almost 20 years after hockey came to Nashville, characterize it as a niche sport here?

Yes, but this is true for almost all markets after the original 6 plus the next 6 clubs. Outside of these 12 markets hockey is considered a boutique sport with specialized but devout passionate fan bases. This is reflected in the NHL’s difficulty in securing significant national media rights fees in the U.S. before the recent NBC Sports cable deal for $200 million per season for 10 years, 2012-21.

 This is always going to be SEC and football country, right?

Yes the mid-south is NFL/SEC football heaven and there is almost zero complementarity between the two sports and Nashville with 1.043 million TV households is right on the saturation edge for two team markets. At its corporate economic core predators euphoria is almost a pure substitution effect between the NFL Titans and NHL Preds based largely on winning and ticket price packaging for the corporate fan base. In traditional hockey markets corporate clients and season-ticket holders dominate the fan base with almost certain risk-free gate cash flowing through the venue, gate and regional TV. In nontraditional Sun-Belt markets like Nashville the fan-base is the opposite where highly variable elastic demand transforms sun-belt hockey into very risky business.

 Are there legions of passionate fans – as there are, I’d say, in nontraditional markets like Carolina and Arizona, which has the benefit of transplants from colder climes — that comprise the bulk of the fanbase, and then others kind of jump on the bandwagon when there’s success and/or the Titans go 2-14?

There is some ebb and flow from bandwagon or fair-weather fan effect in non-traditional markets, but I think the fan transplant effect is over-rated and misunderstood in both the NHL and MLB. Transplants from colder climes are usually more faithful to their original teams and are not so quick to adopt the sun-belt parvenu clubs. This explains the counterintuitive chronic struggles of both MLB and NHL in Florida and Arizona where the population density is right but the demographics are upside down. Nashville does have significant transplant effect bolstered by fair-weather fans front-running with the Preds but there is also a second generation fan base now beginning to emerge from youth hockey and neo-hockey fan bases.

 The questionable sun-belt strategy that added 9 NHL teams in 10 years and relocated 4 other northern clubs to the sun-belt in from 1991-2000 was based on three faulty suppositions: 1) there was a mythical marketing crossover between NASCAR and NHL fans; 2) regional expansion would optimize a US footprint that would expand TV media revenues; and 3) nontraditional fans would swarm to hockey and its superstars like LA Kings fans went gaga over the Great One from 1989-96. This rapid expansion indirectly increased the demand for limited talent and the players share of revenue jumped from 57 percent to 75 percent over the expansion relocation decade. This resulted in the lockout-of 2004-05 and the ultimate imposition of a hard salary cap.

 Nashville was one of the last 4 sun-belt expansion clubs, and the NHL may soon reverse the overall Southern course with a series of retro sunbelt corrections (such as the Atlanta Thrashers recently retro-locating to Winnipeg).  I still think that the secret ingredient that separates Nashville is not only the strong regional economic growth in the right age demographic, but also the switch to local ownership in 2008.

The recently rumored NHL expansion of up to 4 clubs should/could probably also involve some retro-location (made up word) from the failed sun-belt experiments as suggested in this Table. The NHL will never duplicate the Toronto GTA market, so the most plausible expansion relocation combo would be taken in order: 1. Expansion into Seattle/Tacoma; 2) Retro-location of the Phoenix Coyotes to Quebec city; 3) Retro-location of the Florida Panthers to Portland OR; and 4) Retro-location of the Carolina Hurricane back to Hartford.

Is Bridgestone a trendy place to be now that they’re good again?

Yep the Bridge Arena looks like a big spaceship that has landed in the middle of the established South Broadway tourism zone and the trending Lower Broadway hospitality industry attracting an age demographic is ideal for the modern NHL fan-base.

 I’d also imagine that we’re reaching that point now where there’s some second-generation Preds fans. And that a strong showing this season (or next) could really impel the next wave toward the sport.

This is very true but so is the old adage that offense sells tickets and defense wins championships. This is because offensive production is risky business with a high variance whereas defense is relatively certain with a low variance.  It is critical for the Preds to sustain current momentum by taking the next big step and at least get out of the second round of the playoffs.  Apparently the Preds already know that, because this team has been diversified for the short-term win-baby-win offense but also for the long-term stability of defense.

What was your sense of the reaction around here when Trotz was fired – a civic fixture, well-liked, only coach in team history, etc – and do you think that they needed to hire someone like Laviolette, whose aggressive/offensive-oriented system might draw in the casual fan and who could supply the instant credibility of having won a Stanley Cup and appeared in another Finals?

As a management team, Trotz and GM David Poile were the only coach and GM the Preds players and fans had ever known (sounds like the old Tom Landry quote) and that stability was the key to what modest success they had enjoyed (compared to the revolving door instability with the Atlanta Thrashers, etc).  Most Preds fans were realizing the natural limitations of always skating backwards on defense (and offense) and Poile’s choice of a fiery Laviolette as Trotz’s replacement promised a needed change toward actually putting the puck on, at or near the net.

 The transition from comfortably numb defense to flying puck offense was eased somewhat because of Laviolette’s previous Stanley Cup success and a collective realization that his aggressive offensive ideology of actually skating forward was exactly the missing link that the Preds needed to take it to the next level. But the most important factor was Poile’s calming influence and the realization that the 180 degree coaching choice somehow reflected the emerging and changing talent structure of the new and improved Preds. This turnaround had been slowly evolving piece by piece since 2009 and Lavoilette was one of the final pieces to Poile’s puzzle.

 In spite of all of the high flying pucks and aggressive offense, this club is still built on defense but it is a new defense that now skates forward toward the net. Two forwards are now in the top 30 in scoring (Forsberg and Ribeiro) compared to none last season, but six of the top 30 NHL players (4 forwards + 2 defensemen) in plus/minus ratings now skate as Preds compared to none last season. Most importantly goal keeper Pekka Rinne is second in the NHL with a 2 goals against average(GAA) compared to being injured most of last season.

 Amazing things can happen both on and off the ice when you skate forward and actually put the puck on the net.