Posted by John Vrooman on Thursday, April 19, 2018 in Sports Econ Theory (In Progress).

Theory of the Big Dance.

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“The baseball season is structured to mock reason, because science doesn’t work in the games that matter most.”

—Michael Lewis, author of Moneyball

“My sh*t doesn’t work in the playoffs. My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is f***ing luck.”

—Billy Beane, General Manager of Oakland Athletics.

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Playoff Probability

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Champion Effect Convexity

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Open and Closed Case

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Trade Deadline

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