MLB Post Season Chances
Posted by John Vrooman on Wednesday, October 30, 2019 in Major League Baseball, Sports Econ Blog.
Astros World Series Chances: Games Won
| WSN↓ HOU→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 0 | 67.7% | 79.6% | 89.9% | 97.0% |
| 1 | 50.9% | 65.3% | 80.1% | 92.7% |
| 2 | 30.8% | 44.6% | 62.3% | 82.6% |
| 3 | 11.6% | 19.8% | 34.0% | 58.3% |
Nationals World Series Chances: Games Won
| WSN↓ HOU→ | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 0 | 32.3% | 20.4% | 10.1% | 3.0% |
| 1 | 49.1% | 34.7% | 19.9% | 7.3% |
| 2 | 69.2% | 55.4% | 37.7% | 17.4% |
| 3 | 88.4% | 80.2% | 66.0% | 41.7% |
10/25/19: Given the Nationals 2-0 series lead what are the adjusted win probabilities for the World Series?
Nationals 69.2% / Astros 30.8%
MLB 2019 post season Pythagorean gamma win probability matrix.
World Series Betting Line
| V-Power | Vegas | No Juice (4%) | ||||
| Line | Prob | Line | Implied | Fair Odds | Prob | |
| HOU | (210) | 67.7% | (235) | 70.1% | (207) | 67.4% |
| WSN | 210 | 32.3% | 195 | 33.9% | 207 | 32.6% |
| 104.0% | ||||||
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