John's blog posts


Weird Is Good

Leader/Guard—Joe Toye. Weird Is Good—Phillip McGloin

Posted by on December 19, 2018 in NCAA Basketball


Rays Ball Park Limbo

Interview with Tampa Bay Times. Stadium deals in MLB and NFL.pdf I wondered if you would be willing to give some perspective on the collapse of the Rays deal. The questions I have are: Does this look like a play by the Rays to get a better deal? Yes. These moves/threats are all part of…

Posted by on December 12, 2018 in Major League Baseball


CFP Playoff Power Picks

Power 5 Conference Playoff Picks. FBS Logit Power Picks 11/25/18. FBS Logit Power Picks 11/18/18. FBS Logit Power Picks 11/11/18. CFP Rankings ESPN Playoff Predictor  

Posted by on November 25, 2018 in NCAA Football


The Puck Stops Here

Interview with AP / USAToday.  Followup AP / Second Class Settlement? We are hoping someone like yourself can walk us through how the NFL and NHL concussion settlements are different and why. The NFL agreed to a billion-dollar settlement. It seems the NHL players got just $19 million (we are still working to confirm that number on the record,…

Posted by on November 12, 2018 in National Hockey League


San Antonio Chargers

Interview with San Antonio Business Journal. Our mayor has indicated that San Antonio leaders should reach out to Los Angeles Chargers ownership, in light of that team’s severe struggles in finding support in the City of Angels. Do you believe there is merit to San Antonio at least initiating dialogue with the Chargers/why? Yes because…

Posted by on November 7, 2018 in National Football League


MLB Playoff Power Picks

Vroom-Daddy MLB 2018 Postseason Picks Gamma v. Logit MLB Picks ESPN MLB post-season picks

Posted by on September 25, 2018 in Major League Baseball


Power 4 Super-League

Interview with Pittsburgh Post-Gazette 9/6/2018. (pdf) (xls) Pitt made $26.3 million from the ACC in the 2016-17 fiscal year while Connecticut — a former conference mate in the Big East that is now in the American Athletic Conference, a league Pitt may well have ended up in had it not landed in the ACC — made…

Posted by on September 7, 2018 in NCAA Football


Jerry’s World

Interview with Bloomberg News. Cowboys Stadium 2010. Do you have any estimates on how much Arlington has spent on pro sports since first building the (first) Rangers stadium? My estimates show about $960 million, which include $135 million in bonds for the 1994 Rangers stadium, $325 million for the Cowboys stadium, and $500 million for…

Posted by on August 22, 2018 in National Football League


Zoo Effect

Interview with Alabama Media Group (Mobile). I wanted to ask you if a city like Mobile (population near 200K, with a regional population over 400K) needs to be more aggressive and focused in addressing new stadium or sports venue construction projects. Or, do you think Mobile is smart by not forking over any taxpayer money…

Posted by on August 22, 2018 in Major League Baseball


Big League Swap

Interview with Nashville Biz Journal. What makes Nashville a compelling city for a potential MLB team? Why would Manfred include it on his list – however speculative it is? There are 3 basic layers of MLB market potential. The top “automatic” home markets have a market size greater than 2 million TV households (e.g. Atlanta). Second…

Posted by on July 18, 2018 in Major League Baseball


Sunshine Paradox

Interview with Tampa Tribune. Fan-Age PDF Do you have any perspective on what could be behind the more than 5 percent decline in MLB attendance? The entertainment dollar in the sports industry across the board is becoming very competitive very rapidly. All major sports are experiencing a secular and regional aging in fan demographics. This…

Posted by on July 18, 2018 in Major League Baseball


What’s in a Name?

Interview with Tampa Bay Times. How much (estimate) could the Rays get for the naming rights of a new ballpark in Tampa? The current going rate for naming rights for MLB Parks in a Tampa sized market is probably in the $8 million to $10 million annual range for a 25-year to 30-year term, and…

Posted by on June 23, 2018 in Major League Baseball


World Cup of Political Football

Interview with Pacific Standard / (PDF Graphs). Football 365 requote. Direktno requote. In general, what does hosting a World Cup mean for the economy of the host country? Most countries, when vying for the right to host the tournament, tout the influx of tourism dollars and infrastructure investment that will theoretically boost the economy, but is that often…

Posted by on June 20, 2018 in UEFA Football


The Closing Window

Interview with the New York Times. PDF and Images. Roger Noll of Stanford had some pretty good stuff today on how the Knights’ miraculous run “attenuates the honeymoon effect,” from the typical three-year window for expansion teams in non-traditional hockey markets. 1) Is that something you generally agree with? Yes I mentioned that in print…

Posted by on June 10, 2018 in National Hockey League


Revolving Revolution

Interview with Columbus Dispatch. Back in 2012, the city and the county purchased what was then a privately held arena, relying on casino tax money to prop up arena operations, repay loans used in the purchase and pay for capital repairs. Those tax receipts have fallen well short of projections, and the arena has no…

Posted by on May 31, 2018 in National Hockey League


Tamp Em Up Solid

Interview with Tampa Bay Times. Location theory. If the Rays new ballpark has about 600,000 more fans within a 15 mile radius, what might that do to their average attendance? Total MLB attendance remains a variable function of market size, venue capacity and team quality, but according to this simple location theory metric, an increase…

Posted by on May 24, 2018 in Major League Baseball


Piece of Integrity

Interview with CBS. I am writing on integrity fees. Are the pro leagues and NCAA entitled to them?  Is so, what should they cover? The Big 4 professional leagues and the 2 quasi-professional NCAA revenue sports are seeking a piece of sports betting action, and it can easily be argued that they are not necessarily…

Posted by on May 17, 2018 in National Football League


Bargain Price

Interview with Charlotte Observer. (Sporting News) -What benefit might David Tepper see in bringing in minority owners if he technically doesn’t need any (financially speaking)? David Tepper will be certainly more fan friendly and way more accessible to the media than “Mister” Richardson. In terms of the overall Panthers fan experience this should be a positive…

Posted by on May 16, 2018 in National Football League


Sure Thing

Interview with Las Vegas Sun. -Is downsizing new stadiums projects and increasing technology and amenities the best way to comate the ever improving at-home game experience? Welcome to the new NFL where smart luxury stadiums are economically designed to maximize team profit rather than fan welfare. The general downsizing trend in the NFL is consistent…

Posted by on May 8, 2018 in National Football League


Yum Center Reboot

Interview with Louisville Courier-Journal. Top 10 Revenues and Salaries. I’m just wondering about what the Yum Center will be like and how it will be perceived by the community in 30 years, when the bonds are scheduled to be paid off. Can you weigh in with any perspective? The new luxury arenas have at least…

Posted by on May 4, 2018 in NCAA Basketball


Welcome to the Machine

Two Optima 

Posted by on April 30, 2018 in Sports Econ Theory (In Progress)


Dual Market Theorem

Dual Basic. Zeta Distributions Vrooman’s law

Posted by on April 28, 2018 in Sports Econ Theory (In Progress)


Monopoly Power

National Football League Perfect Game

Posted by on April 27, 2018 in Sports Econ Theory (In Progress)


Competitive Balance

Actual (observed) standard deviations within season Ideal (expected) standard deviations for n-game season MLB CBI 2015 Ideal/actual standard deviation (0 ≤ σ ≤ 1) NFL CBI 2015 NHL CBI 2015 and 2016 NBA CBI 2016 Vroom-daddy Gammas: NCAAM Basketball 2016

Posted by on April 27, 2018 in Sports Econ Theory (In Progress)


Beta Balance

Posted by on April 26, 2018 in Sports Econ Theory (In Progress)


Pythagorean Gammas

Gamma Distribution

Posted by on April 25, 2018 in Sports Econ Theory (In Progress)


Logit Projections

NBA v NFL Final 4 picks

Posted by on April 24, 2018 in Sports Econ Theory (In Progress)


Zeta Distribution (Vrooman’s Law #2)

Zeta Estimates.

Posted by on April 23, 2018 in Sports Econ Theory (In Progress)


Theory of the First Best

Theory of the First Best / Power Point.

Posted by on April 23, 2018 in Sports Econ Theory (In Progress)


Media Madness

TV Revenues Win Model

Posted by on April 22, 2018 in Sports Econ Theory (In Progress)


Salary Caps

Salary Caps

Posted by on April 21, 2018 in Sports Econ Theory (In Progress)


Monopsony Power

Basic MRP Inverse Square-root Rule

Posted by on April 20, 2018 in Sports Econ Theory (In Progress)


Champion Effect

Theory of the Big Dance. “The baseball season is structured to mock reason, because science doesn’t work in the games that matter most.” —Michael Lewis, author of Moneyball “My sh*t doesn’t work in the playoffs. My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is f***ing luck.” —Billy Beane, General Manager…

Posted by on April 19, 2018 in Sports Econ Theory (In Progress)


QFV Theory

Five Ways to Beat the Bombers

Posted by on April 18, 2018 in Sports Econ Theory (In Progress)


Two to Tango

Two to Tango pdf “Asserting that a single team could produce a game is like a Zen riddle: Who wins when a football team plays itself?” — American Needle, Inc. v. NFL, et al. 538 F.3d 736 (7th Cir.2009).

Posted by on April 16, 2018 in Sports Econ Theory (In Progress)


Sportsman Leagues

Sportsman Leagues “The goal is to win. It’s not about making money” — Roman Abramovich, owner Chelsea FC    

Posted by on April 15, 2018 in Sports Econ Theory (In Progress)


Unified Theory

Unified Theory Original. “There is nothing more limited than a limited partner in the Yankees.” —John McMullen, limited partner in the NY Yankees Sportsman Effect Asymmetric markets: Cubs vs. Brewers Steinbrenner Agency Effect Other Peoples Money

Posted by on April 13, 2018 in Sports Econ Theory (In Progress)


Mystery Ticket Shortage

Interview with Toronto Star. We’re revealing that MLSE has designated an unknown number of season ticket holders “commercial resellers” and marked up their tickets 30% for next season. They also offer to cancel the markup if the ticket holder joins a “preferred reseller program” which hasn’t been well defined yet, but many suspect will involve…

Posted by on April 11, 2018 in National Hockey League


Rival Leagues

National League-American Rival League (Baseball) War 1901-1903 National Football League-American Football League War (1960-67) National Basketball Association-American Basketball Association War (1967-76) National Hockey League-World Hockey Association War (1972-79) Big 4 Expansion and Franchise Relocation (1995-2016)

Posted by on April 8, 2018 in Sports Econ Theory (In Progress)


Pay for Play

Complete Interview (XL) with Bloomberg Law. The proposed superficial symptom-treating political solution to the economic exploitation of athletes at all levels is logistically problematic and probably counterproductive. The economic problem of exploitation of athletes derives directly from the vertically integrated monopsony power of the NCAA but more deeply from the monopsony power of the big boy…

Posted by on April 7, 2018 in NCAA Football


Franchise Free Agency

Franchise Free Agency Original / Update “This isn’t our doing, the free agency occurred in court. I would much prefer the Oakland Raiders to the Los Angeles Raiders and the Baltimore Colts instead of the Indianapolis Colts” —Art Modell, former owner of the Baltimore Ravens formerly the Cleveland Browns concerning the relocation of the St. Louis…

Posted by on April 6, 2018 in Sports Econ Theory (In Progress)


Rival League Theorem (Vrooman’s Law #1)

Dual Market Theorem / Power Point.  

Posted by on April 3, 2018 in Sports Econ Theory (In Progress)


Cinderella Paradox

Interview with CBS.  According to the U.S. Department of Education, the school’s athletic revenue and expenses were $13.8 million as of its latest school year.  Do you find it strange that the numbers match up perfectly? This is common accounting practice. Are most of the benefits that Cinderella schools realize fleeting? Yes, but there is…

Posted by on March 28, 2018 in NCAA Basketball


Bottom Big 10

Interview with Bloomberg News. B10 revenue splits. The B10 poverty cycle is the positive feedback loop from winning to talent to revenues to expenditures for the bottom 7 programs. The success cycle is the opposite talent revenue loop for the top 7 programs. This is the major problem in almost all sports where the rich…

Posted by on March 28, 2018 in NCAA Football


Folie de Mars

Interview with French financial paper Challenges. March madness in NCAA college basketball occurs in a natural US sports entertainment vacuum every Spring since the early 1980s. The lack luster NFL free agency period (transfer window) is followed by only a few true US football fanatics, MLB regular season that usually begins after the first of April…

Posted by on March 28, 2018 in NCAA Basketball


Monopoly Money

Interview with Charlotte Observer. — How much of a concern are the upcoming CBA and TV contracts for a possible buyer of an NFL franchise?  The strength of sports union varies inversely with the length of the CBA. Largely because of the relatively short careers of its players (3.3 years), the NFLPA is by far…

Posted by on March 23, 2018 in National Football League


League of Ordinary Gentlemen

Interview with Crains Business NY. NFL Economics Stat Pack.  Clearly there are threats to the NFL’s business model as it now stands. Rights costs are generally out of synch with ratings and ad revenue, and the dangers of CTE could push young players and their parents away from the game in the coming years. My…

Posted by on March 8, 2018 in National Football League


Goldman Goes Global

Interview with Dutch Newspaper,  Algemeen Dagblad (AD Netherlands) Below is the Feyenoord Stadium deal as best I can gather from the internet compared to the most recent NFL stadium deal in Las Vegas for the Oakland Raiders. Goldman Sachs was also the original lead bank on the Raiders deal but pulled out probably due to internal…

Posted by on March 7, 2018 in UEFA Football


Devil in the Details

Interview with Austin Biz Journal. MLS Stadium Deals Does the $400 million ‘community benefit’ impact over the club’s first 25 years seem plausible given other MLS stadium impacts? What supplemental information from the team/MLS would be needed to determine an economic impact? This is impossible to tell without seeing the numbers. Impact studies usually if…

Posted by on March 5, 2018 in Major League Soccer


Yum Center Boondoggle

Interview with Louisville Courier-Journal. I’m trying to get a sense of whether Louisville’s financing plan for its arena is similar to/out of line with what has been done with other arenas. Kentucky’s auditor noted a year or so ago that ¾ of the arena’s revenue comes from taxpayers, through either TIF proceeds or a yearly…

Posted by on February 21, 2018 in NCAA Basketball

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