International Balance of Talent
Posted by John Vrooman on Tuesday, September 9, 2014 in UEFA Football.
Interview with Fortune Magazine
Transfer spending is analogous to the international balance of trade, where wealthy leagues usually import more talent than lower revenue domestic leagues. The bad news is that wealthy leagues like EPL have an adverse transfer balance but the good news is that the transfer deficits directly reflect the relative economic power of the stronger leagues. (All money in euros)
According to Deloitte the EPL was a 2.9 billion revenue league in 2013 compared to Bundesliga 2 billion, La Liga 1.9 billion, Serie A 1.682 billion and French Ligue 1 with total turnover (revenues) of 1.3 billion. So the magnitude of the transfers payments is roughly in synch with revenue differentials with the exception of the fiscally conservative Bundesliga.
The driver of all revenue and ultimately the transfer market is clearly the exponential rise in media rights in all leagues. (Broadcast revenue is about 46 percent of the revenue in the Big 5 European leagues). (Barclays) English Premier League (EPL) generated about 4 billion total revenue in 2014 based largely on the explosion in media rights fees spanning the 2013-16 seasons.
The new 3 season broadcast deals with Sky Sports + BT Live came in at 3.77 billion euros while the increasingly popular overseas deals are now about 2.5 billion euros compared to 1.75 billion 2010-13. In the US NBC Sports network captured US EPL rights from Fox Sports 1 for 195 million ($150 million) over the 3 year deal. (1 pound = 1.25 euros=$1.61; 1 euro = $1.29). Overall the new EPL TV deal increased by 55 percent from 4.2 billion euros in 2010-13 to 6.5 billion euros in 2013-16.
The interesting fact is that while gross transfer spending increased by 28 percent since last season 2013 (actually less than revenue projected growth of 38 percent) in the Premiership, net transfer spending of just over 500 million euros is approximately the same as last season.
EPL gross transfer spending was about 1.016 billion euros in 2014 with gross sales of 504 million euros for net transfer deficit of 512 million euros, compared to 800 million euros gross and 503 euros million net spending in 2013. This implies that the relative revenue growth of the Big 5 leagues has maintained its balance.
The players’ share of revenues in each of the Big 5 leagues provides a surrogate measure of aggressive spending habits of sportsman or sugar-daddy owners (as opposed to profit-maximizers). Bundesliga and La Liga are have the lowest wage/revenue share with 51% and 59% respectively, while wage ratios in Italian Serie A, French Ligue 1 and English Premiership were all over 70%.
This suggests the presence of wage and transfer pressure from sportsman owners in Serie A, Ligue 1 and EPL although the real pressure is concentrated in a few clubs with sugar-daddy owners who bankroll their club’s payroll debt and transfer deficits.
During the most recent 2014 transfer window the market was driven largely by the spending of four sportsman owned clubs in EPL: Manchester United (182.5 million euros), Liverpool (145.8 million euros), Chelsea (111.3 million euros), Arsenal (92.7 million euros)and the usual two suspects in La Liga: Barca (184.7 million euros)and Real Madrid (120 million euros).
Previously high rolling league champions Manchester City (and also Paris Saint-Germain in French Ligue 1) have been sanctioned by UEFA for breaking new financial fair play debt rules. UEFA has restricted City’s transfer spending (51.5 million euros) to 60 million euros in 2014 compared to its 130 million euros spending spree last season in 2013. Manchester United is owned by the American Glazer family which also owns the NFL Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Liverpool is owned by American New England Sports Partners who also own the MLB Boston Red Sox. Manchester City is owned by Sheikh Mansour Bin Zayed since 2009 and Chelsea is owned by Russian oil tycoon Roman Abramovich since 2003.
Both are prototypical sugar-daddy owners with personal wealth over 13 billion euros. Since 2011 Arsenal ownership is controlled (66.7 percent) by American Stan Kroenke (Kroenke Sports Enterprises) who also owns the NFL St. Louis Rams, NHL Colorado Avalanche, NBA Denver Nuggets and MLS Colorado Rapids.
These four EPL clubs account for over one-half of EPL spending and Barca and Real Madrid spent almost two-thirds of the total transfer spending in La Liga. Interestingly enough over one-fourth of the EPL transfers (266 million euros) are from La Liga, including 96 million euros spending by Chelsea on Costa (Athetico Madrid ), Fabregas (Barca), and Luis (Athetico Madrid) and Man U ‘s 75 million deal for Real Madrid’s Angel Di Maria. This compares to Barcelona’s 114 million euro fees spent on EPL talent, including record setting 95 million euros transfer fee for Liverpool’s Luis Suarez.
Do the high rollers convert transfers into EPL results? Yes, but with considerable waste and transfer spending excess, because the transfer market is an inefficient source of talent
See the Table below that begins in the year 2003 when Roman Abramovich acquired perennially average Chelsea FC.
Do these EPL and La Liga big spenders deliver in UEFA Champions League?
Yes and there is strong evidence that Champions League revenues close a vicious transfer spending circle that polarizes of European football and creates a de facto Super League
Check out the UEFA Champions League finals in last 10 years. Out of the 20 opportunities to win it all or be runners-up in UEFA Champions League, EPL big spenders occupy 8 spots, whereas La Liga takes 5, Bundesliga gets 4, and Serie A captures 3 spots.
(By comparison Bundesliga’s Bayern München spent only 55 million euros (40 million to La Liga) and Borussia Dortmund spent 46 million euros in the 2014 Summer transfer window)
Year Winners Runners-up Att Venue
2014 Real Madrid 4 Atlético Madrid 1* 61000 Lisboa
2013 Bayern München 2 Borussia Dortmund 1 86000 London
2012 Chelsea 1 Bayern München 1+ 70000 München
2011 Barcelona 3 Manchester United 1 86000 London
2010 Internazionale 2 Bayern München 0 75000 Madrid
2009 Barcelona 2 Manchester United 0 67000 Roma
2008 Manchester United 1 Chelsea 1+ 67310 Moscow
2007 Milan 2 Liverpool 1 74000 Athinai
2006 FC Barcelona 2 Arsenal 1 79610 Paris
2005 Liverpool 3 Milan 3+ 65000 Istanbul
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