Sports Econ Blog


Coronaviral Impact

Interview with Wall Street Journal / Toronto Star / AFP /  What sports and what teams do you think are most likely to be financially impacted by fans not attending, or not being allowed to attend games? Hockey? Baseball? Minor leagues? Major leagues? Which sports and teams’ revenue models make them most vulnerable to this type…

Posted by on March 13, 2020 in Major League Baseball, National Basketball Association, National Football League, National Hockey League, Sports Econ Blog


Vroom-Daddy Bracketology

Vroom-Daddy Rankings 3/9/20 / Basketball Reference / NCAA / CBS / ESPN / Vroom-Daddy Rankings 3/2/20 /  Vroom-Daddy Rankings 2/25/20 /  Vroom-Daddy Rankings 2/18/20 /  Vroom-Daddy Rankings 2/9/20 /  Vroom-Daddy Rankings 1/6/20 /   Vroom-Daddy Logit Rankings 12/14/19 / 

Posted by on March 9, 2020 in NCAA Basketball, Sports Econ Blog


NHL Logit Power Ranking

NHL V-Power Logit Rank 3/6/20 / Hockey Reference. NHL V-Power Logit Rank 2/27/20 /  NHL V-Power Logit Rank 2/7/20 /  NHL V-Power Logit Rank 12/20/19 / 

Posted by on March 6, 2020 in National Hockey League, Sports Econ Blog


NBA Logit Power Ranking

NBA V-Power Logit Ranking 3/5/20  /  Basketball Reference  NBA V-Power Logit Ranking 2/26/20  /   NBA V-Power Logit Ranking 2/7/20  /   NBA V-Power Logit Ranking 1/7/20 /  NBA V-Power Logit Ranking 12/4/19 / 

Posted by on March 5, 2020 in National Basketball Association, Sports Econ Blog


What’s that Sound?

There’s something happening here What it is ain’t exactly clear… There’s battle lines being drawn Nobody’s right if everybody’s wrong… What a field-day for the heat A thousand people in the street… Paranoia strikes deep Into your life it will creep… We better stop, hey, what’s that sound? Everybody look what’s going down. —Stephen Stills,…

Posted by on February 20, 2020 in Major League Baseball, Sports Econ Blog


Blind Sided

Interview with Toronto Globe & Mail / Interview / NFL Revenue Growth / Economic Structure of NFL (PDF) I’m a regular reader of Prof. Vrooman’s blog and was wondering if he might have a few minutes today (Tuesday) or tomorrow to talk about the current state of the NFL from an economic perspective. I was hoping to get…

Posted by on January 31, 2020 in National Football League, Sports Econ Blog


Sketchy Business

Interview with Fortune Magazine 1/30/20 / Interview with graphics. I’m a reporter for Fortune currently working on a story for our upcoming magazine issue that focuses on Major League Soccer’s rapid economic and geographical expansion in recent years. In particular, I’m focusing on the extent to which the league has grown its footprint, how team values have reportedly…

Posted by on January 30, 2020 in Major League Soccer, Sports Econ Blog


Monopoly Unchecked

Interview with HBO’s “Real Sports with Briant Gumbel.” NFL Economic Structure / NFL Financials.  Between us (I wont quote you…it’s just to get me thinking on some things): Would you say that American sports leagues are unchecked monopolies, not subject to oversight or regulation (like most monopolies)? Yes, the NFL is an unregulated (if not legislated…

Posted by on January 27, 2020 in National Football League, Sports Econ Blog

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Super Bowl Boomerang

Interview NPR/Miami: I’m a reporter-producer with WLRN, the NPR member station in Miami. This year’s Super Bowl will be held here, and the NFL has made the environment a focus in the lead-up to the big game. I’d like to consider this relationship for a possible audio feature story airing the week before the Super Bowl….

Posted by on January 20, 2020 in National Football League, Sports Econ Blog

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Super Bowl LIV Chances

Vroom-Daddy NFL Playoff Chances 2020 Wild-card weekend FAV PROB PTS* Bills at Texans | Jan. 4, 3:35 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC BUF 55.3% -1.7 Seahawks at Eagles | Jan. 5, 3:40 p.m. ET | NBC SEA 57.4% -2.4 Titans at Patriots | Jan. 4, 7:15 p.m. ET | CBS NEP 70.4% -7.0 Vikings at Saints | Jan. 5, 12:05 p.m. ET…

Posted by on January 20, 2020 in National Football League, Sports Econ Blog


CFP Championship Chances

Vroom-Daddy CFP Championship Chances 2020 School Conf PF PA SOS SRS ODDS PROB PTS LSU SEC (West) 48.9 21.6 5.52 24.9 13.4 57.2% (2.83) Clemson ACC (Atl) 45.3 11.5 1.20 22.1 10.0 42.8% 2.83 CFP Final V-Man Rankings 1/4/20 / Football Reference / NCAA CFP V-Power Rank 12/9/2019 / College Football Playoff. CFP Conference Playoff Chances 12/6/19./ Vegas CFP Betting Lines. NCAA CFP…

Posted by on January 4, 2020 in NCAA Football, Sports Econ Blog


Expansion Derby

Interview with Charlotte Business Journal / Atlanta Business Chronicle / Expansion Derby. MLS is going to name Charlotte as its next expansion city with an announcement Tuesday. Carolina Panthers owner is expected to pay $300 million to $325 million for a team that will share the NFL stadium (with modifications) and likely begin playing in 2021. I’m hoping…

Posted by on December 16, 2019 in Major League Soccer, Sports Econ Blog


Turkey Day

Interview with Athletic. Graphs pdf. Graphs XL. I’m writing a story for publication ahead of next week’s NFL Thanksgiving games, taking a look at the history and importance of those games for the Dallas Cowboys and the Detroit Lions as the long-time hosts. One of the primary questions I’m trying to answer is the financial importance…

Posted by on November 21, 2019 in National Football League, Sports Econ Blog


Winner’s Curse

Interview with Fox Business / PDF  -Traditionally, what has been the NFL’s stance or approach on private equity investments? It seems that the league has preferred to deal with individuals rather than firms in terms of ownership. -Are we approaching a point where the NFL would consider allowing a private equity firm to take a major…

Posted by on November 21, 2019 in National Football League, Sports Econ Blog


MLB Post Season Chances

Astros World Series Chances: Games Won WSN↓ HOU→ 0 1 2 3 0 67.7% 79.6% 89.9% 97.0% 1 50.9% 65.3% 80.1% 92.7% 2 30.8% 44.6% 62.3% 82.6% 3 11.6% 19.8% 34.0% 58.3% Nationals World Series Chances: Games Won WSN↓ HOU→ 0 1 2 3 0 32.3% 20.4% 10.1% 3.0% 1 49.1% 34.7% 19.9% 7.3% 2 69.2% 55.4% 37.7%…

Posted by on October 30, 2019 in Major League Baseball, Sports Econ Blog


Failure to Perform

Interview with Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The basic idea is the Pirates struggling right now and whether the city of Pittsburgh has any obligation to step in or what, if anything, can be done about their situation. I have three questions I was hoping you could answer, if you didn’t mind. 1. Do professional sports franchises that…

Posted by on October 9, 2019 in Major League Baseball, Sports Econ Blog


MLB V-Power Gamma Ranking

V-Power Rankings (Pythagorean gamma) Full 2019 Season. V-Power Rankings (Pythagorean gamma) 9/9/1 V-Power Rankings (Pythagorean gamma) 9/23/19. V-Power Rankings (Pythagorean gamma) 9/9/1 V-Power Rankings (Pythagorean gamma) 9/16/19 . V-Power Rankings (Pythagorean gamma) 9/9/19 . V-Man Pythagorean Gamma Labor Day Rankings  V-Man Pythagorean Gamma Rankings 8/14/19. Baseball Reference. V-Man Logit and Gamma (Pythagorean) MLB Power Rankings at the All-Star Break….

Posted by on September 30, 2019 in Major League Baseball


ACC Network Goes Live

Interview with FOX Business. PDF. FOX: We’re working on a story today about ESPN’s launch of the ACC Network and what it could mean for the balance of power in college sports, in terms of revenue and other benefits. Would love to get your thoughts on the network’s financial prospects and if it could boost…

Posted by on August 24, 2019 in NCAA Football, Sports Econ Blog


Brotherhood of Running Backs

Interview with Bloomberg Law. Lexology. NFL Player expenses by position in 2019.  Spotrac. I’m a reporter with Bloomberg Law and did a brief story this morning on the potential for running backs to split from the NFL Players Association. I’d love to update the story with some more context on why running backs might want to split from the NFLPA…

Posted by on August 9, 2019 in National Football League, Sports Econ Blog


Theory of the Trade Deadline

V-Man Gamma Power Rankings at the Trade Deadline. ESPN Deadline Trade Tracker. Champion Effect / Trade Deadline Theory.

Posted by on July 31, 2019 in Major League Baseball, Sports Econ Blog


Expansion Game

Interview with Charlotte Business Journal. MLS Expansion Game: Past Present and Future. Could you share a thought or two on what you think Charlotte’s chances are for landing a team and what you think the odds are for it working here? Any hurdles you see? Here’s a quick comparison chart of the MLS hopefuls with odds…

Posted by on July 9, 2019 in Major League Soccer, Sports Econ Blog


Cinderella Blues

Interview with St. Louis Biz Journal / Complete Interview with Graphics / Graphics XLS. Blues into the black graphics  / Follow-up graphics XLS. Broadly speaking, what does a Stanley Cup championship mean for an NHL franchise financially? The first Stanley Cup Championship for the Blues will pay the bills and sell plenty of t-shirts, but in the relatively risky business of…

Posted by on June 15, 2019 in National Hockey League, Sports Econ Blog


We the New North

Toronto Star 6/3/19 / Complete Interview: We the New North (PDF with Graphics) / Graphics XLS. Globe & Mail 6/14/19 / Article PDF / Complete Interview (PDF with Graphics) Globe & Mail–Will the Championship directly or immediately affect the team’s valuation? The first Canadian NBA Championship for the Raptors will certainly pay the bills and sell plenty of We…

Posted by on June 5, 2019 in National Basketball Association, National Hockey League, Sports Econ Blog


Strike Out Syndrome

Strike Out Epidemic or Reliever Fever? MLB Rule Changes / MLB Press Release. Wapo: Is Velocity Strangling Baseball? 5/2019.  NYT 538: Have Relievers Broken Baseball? 2/2019.  NYT 538: Bullpen Takeover, 8/2014. 

Posted by on May 31, 2019 in Major League Baseball, Sports Econ Blog


Tanking the NBA Draft

Interview with NPR Marketplace. NBA tanking graphic. Actual Draft Order. I’m working on a story about the NBA lottery, but not really the normal sports story. We’re looking at why the NBA does it this way, why people think it’s rigged, and what the economic gains of having the number one pick are (or could be). The…

Posted by on May 14, 2019 in National Basketball Association, Sports Econ Blog


Skating into the Black

Interview with Columbus Business First. -What’s the difference, economic impact-wise and team finances-wise, of the Predators making the Stanley Cup Final, as opposed to just having a moderately successful playoff run? The rule of thumb in the NHL is that clubs breakeven on average over the regular season, and then generate positive in the black…

Posted by on May 9, 2019 in National Hockey League, Sports Econ Blog


On Thin Ice

The big market clubs in NYC (MSG), LA (Staples) and Chicago (United) are noticeably absent from the NHL and NBA playoffs. Toronto Maple Leafs were knocked out in the first round of the playoffs and they haven’t won a Stanley Cup in 50 years.  Why are high revenue clubs not dominating the NBA and NHL as expected?  See 2018 NHL…

Posted by on May 8, 2019 in National Basketball Association, National Hockey League, Sports Econ Blog


Post-Season Puzzle

Theory of the Big Dance.  My sh*t doesn’t work in the playoffs. My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is f***ing luck. —Billy Beane, GM Oakland Athletics In the first round of the current 2019 NHL playoffs five of the eight higher seeded teams with home ice advantage lost…

Posted by on April 28, 2019 in National Basketball Association, National Hockey League, Sports Econ Blog


NFL Draft: Inverse Square Root Rule

Vrooman’s Inverse Square Root Rule in 2019 Draft. In Bloomberg News. Origins of Vrooman’s Rule. Inverse Square-root Rule

Posted by on April 25, 2019 in National Football League, Sports Econ Blog


MLB Pythagorean Gamma Rankings

MLB Pythagorean Gamma 4/15/19. MLB VRX Logit Power Rankings 4/15/19.

Posted by on April 16, 2019 in Major League Baseball


NBA Playoff Match-ups Round 1

NBA VRX Playoff Chances Round 1. NBA VRX Power Pix 3/27/19. NBA VRX Power Pix 3/7/19. NBA VRX Power Picks 2/24/19 NBA VRX Power Picks 1/28/19. NBA VRX Power Rankings 1/15/19.  NBA Power Picks 12/14/18 Basketball Reference Playoff Probabilities

Posted by on April 11, 2019 in National Basketball Association


Both Ends against the Middle

Interview with Charlotte Business Journal. These are numbers from South Carolina Department of Commerce estimating impact of a Panthers training headquarters being built there. Can you give me your perspective on this? The simple problem with the superficial politics of pie in the sky promises of regional impact studies is that they usually imply that…

Posted by on April 8, 2019 in National Football League


NHL Playoff Match-ups Round 1

NHL Playoff Probabilities 4/7/19 NHL VRX Power Pix 3/27/19. NHL VRX Power Pix 3/7/19. NHL VRX Power Picks 2/24/19. NHL VRX Power Picks 2/7/19. NHL VRX Picks: 1/16/19.  NHL-V-Power Picks:12/20/18.

Posted by on April 7, 2019 in National Hockey League


VRX Final 4 Match-ups

NCAA Final 4 Win Probability Matrix 2019 School (Seed) Virginia Michigan State Texas Tech Auburn Virginia (2) … 51.5% 57.5% 59.0% Michigan State (6) 48.5% … 56.0% 57.5% Texas Tech (9) 42.5% 44.0% … 51.5% Auburn (18) 41.0% 42.5% 48.5% … P(win) row v column. John Vrooman/Vanderbilt University Win Probability Matrix. Final 4 VRX Quick Pix / Final 4 VRX…

Posted by on April 6, 2019 in NCAA Basketball


The Going Free Agent Rate

The Going Rate for the 2019 Free Agent (Tier 3) monopoly market. After all is said and done the present values of the 2 deals for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are about the same at around $200 million in 2019. The going rate for appears to be around $7.5 million PV per WAR in large…

Posted by on March 9, 2019 in Major League Baseball, Sports Econ Blog


Azteca West

Interview with San Diego Union-Tribune. I’m working on a story about SDSU’s Mission Valley stadium with the news hook that it’s signed a $250M contract with Clark Construction Company. I was hoping to pick your brain on a few things. – What do you make of Clark Construction Company? What does the selection signal, if…

Posted by on March 2, 2019 in NCAA Football


Labor Market Twist

Part 2 of Interview with CNBC; Sequel to “The Baseball Way.” Source: Sportsman Leagues. The Going Rate. Harper and Machado Present Value Contracts both $200 million. What kind of revenue sharing does major league baseball need to have to make more teams competitive and as a result make more teams bid more on free agents? Why does…

Posted by on February 23, 2019 in Major League Baseball


The Baseball Way

Part 1 of Interview with CNBC; Prequel to Labor Market Twist. The GRID. Source: Labor Market Reconsidered. What would you say is the biggest challenge that Major League Baseball has to face this season from a business/ economical perspective? There is no quick and easy demand-side fix for the chronic issues of MLB outliving the demographics of its…

Posted by on February 17, 2019 in Major League Baseball

Super Bowl LIII Logo

Super Bowl LIII VRX Pick

NFL VRX Super Bowl Pick 1/22/19. NFL VRX Round 3 Picks 1/14/19. NFL VRX Round 2 Picks 1/11/19. NFL V-Power Picks 1/6/19. NFL V-Power Picks 1/1/19. NFL Power Picks 12/25/18. NFL Power Picks 12/18/18. NFL Power Picks 12/11/18. NFL Power Picks 12/4/18. NFL Power Picks 11/27/18. Upshot: Playoff Simulator. NFL Mid-Season Power Picks 2018.  

Posted by on February 1, 2019 in National Football League


Money for Nothin’

Interview with Charlotte Biz Journal. L.A. All-Star Game Impact Study 2018. I’m working on some stories about the NBA All-Star Game coming here this month and wanted to ask about a couple of items. *The first is, the NBA estimates 150,000 visitors during the weekend of events. What do you think of that estimate given…

Posted by on February 1, 2019 in National Basketball Association


Rival Leagues Rising

Interview with TSN (The Sports Network) . What factors have led to the the creation/planning of at least three alternative professional football leagues — AAF, XFL, FFL? The NFL is a stone cold monopoly league (one seller) in the fans product market (gate and media) and monopsony (one buyer) cartel in the players’ labor market. The…

Posted by on January 31, 2019 in National Football League


Nothing More or Less

Interview with Arizona Republic. The Phoenix Suns have been asking Phoenix to update its city-owned arena for years, and late last year, they brokered a deal that would have the city paying $150 million and the Suns paying $80 million. Unsurprisingly to me (but apparently surprising to the team and the city), the public was…

Posted by on January 18, 2019 in National Basketball Association


Elephant in the Room

Interview with Bloomberg News. / NFL Draft Graphics. Given your expertise in NFL and its CBA, curious if you might be able to do some rough calculations on how much Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence might be losing out on by having to spend at least the next two seasons in college before being eligible for the NFL…

Posted by on January 10, 2019 in National Football League, NCAA Football


NCAA-F VRX Bowl Season Picks

Updated V-Power Picks 1/7/19. Updated V-Power Picks 1/1/19. Updated V-Power Picks 12/30/18. Updated V-Power Picks 12/27/18. Updated V-Power Picks 12/26/18. Updated V-Power Picks 12/24/18. Updated FBS V-Power Results 12/21/18. FBS V-Power Bowl Picks. V-power picks: Slow start. Taking and Giving Points. Bowl-Season Picks and Point Spreads. FBS Logit Power Picks 12/2/18  

Posted by on January 7, 2019 in NCAA Football


Pac-12 For Sale

Interview with Inside Higher Ed./ Pac-12 NewCo. I wondered if you had some time to hop on the phone today to chat about this: The idea of a private investor in the Pac-12 (nonprofit) is interesting to me. Also happy to accept your thoughts by email. Pac-12 NewCo. sounds interesting but I doubt the plan…

Posted by on January 4, 2019 in NCAA Football


Panther Power

Interview with Charlotte Observer. -What would you say are the biggest advantages/opportunities of moving practice facilities (adjacent to BofA Stadium) and offices (inside stadium) to somewhere else offsite? The Panthers are simply keeping up with the Jonses by building separate practice facilities, which in this case probably involves a covered facility and offices exclusively controlled…

Posted by on December 20, 2018 in National Football League


Weird Is Good

Leader/Guard—Joe Toye. Weird Is Good—Phillip McGloin

Posted by on December 19, 2018 in NCAA Basketball


Rays Ball Park Limbo

Interview with Tampa Bay Times. Stadium deals in MLB and NFL.pdf I wondered if you would be willing to give some perspective on the collapse of the Rays deal. The questions I have are: Does this look like a play by the Rays to get a better deal? Yes. These moves/threats are all part of…

Posted by on December 12, 2018 in Major League Baseball


CFP Playoff Power Picks

Power 5 Conference Playoff Picks. FBS Logit Power Picks 11/25/18. FBS Logit Power Picks 11/18/18. FBS Logit Power Picks 11/11/18. CFP Rankings ESPN Playoff Predictor  

Posted by on November 25, 2018 in NCAA Football


The Puck Stops Here

Interview with AP / USAToday.  Followup AP / Second Class Settlement? We are hoping someone like yourself can walk us through how the NFL and NHL concussion settlements are different and why. The NFL agreed to a billion-dollar settlement. It seems the NHL players got just $19 million (we are still working to confirm that number on the record,…

Posted by on November 12, 2018 in National Hockey League

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