Sports Econ Blog

Major_League_Baseball

The Baseball Way

Interview with CNBC. The GRID. Labor Market Reconsidered. What would you say is the biggest challenge that Major League Baseball has to face this season from a business/ economical perspective? There is no quick demand-side fix for the chronic issues of MLB outliving the demographics of its rapidly aging fan base in a new-media steaming fantasy-league driven…

Posted by on February 17, 2019 in Major League Baseball


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NCAA-B VRX Power Picks

NCAAB VRX Power Rank 2/10/19. ESPN: NCAAB BPI Rank . NCAA-BB VRX Power Rank 2/3/19.  NCAA-BB VRX Power Rank 1/28/19. NCAA-BB VRX Ranking 1/21/19. NCAA-BB VRX Logit Rankings 1/14/19. NCAA-BB Logit Power Picks 1/7/19. NCAA-BB Logit Power Picks 12/30/18. NCAA-BB Logit Power Picks 12/24/18 / Complete rankings NCAA-BB Logit Power Picks 12/17/18  

Posted by on February 10, 2019 in NCAA Basketball


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NHL VRX Power Picks

NHL VRX Power Picks 2/7/19 NHL VRX Picks: 1/16/19.  NHL-V-Power Picks:12/20/18.

Posted by on February 7, 2019 in National Hockey League


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Super Bowl LIII VRX Pick

NFL VRX Super Bowl Pick 1/22/19. NFL VRX Round 3 Picks 1/14/19. NFL VRX Round 2 Picks 1/11/19. NFL V-Power Picks 1/6/19. NFL V-Power Picks 1/1/19. NFL Power Picks 12/25/18. NFL Power Picks 12/18/18. NFL Power Picks 12/11/18. NFL Power Picks 12/4/18. NFL Power Picks 11/27/18. Upshot: Playoff Simulator. NFL Mid-Season Power Picks 2018.  

Posted by on February 1, 2019 in National Football League


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Money for Nothin’

Interview with Charlotte Biz Journal. L.A. All-Star Game Impact Study 2018. I’m working on some stories about the NBA All-Star Game coming here this month and wanted to ask about a couple of items. *The first is, the NBA estimates 150,000 visitors during the weekend of events. What do you think of that estimate given…

Posted by on February 1, 2019 in National Basketball Association


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Rival Leagues Rising

Interview with TSN (The Sports Network) . What factors have led to the the creation/planning of at least three alternative professional football leagues — AAF, XFL, FFL? The NFL is a stone cold monopoly league (one seller) in the fans product market (gate and media) and monopsony (one buyer) cartel in the players’ labor market. The…

Posted by on January 31, 2019 in National Football League


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NBA VRX Power Picks

NBA VRX Power Picks 1/28/19. NBA VRX Power Rankings 1/15/19.  NBA Power Picks 12/14/18 Basketball Reference Playoff Probabilities

Posted by on January 27, 2019 in National Basketball Association


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Nothing More or Less

Interview with Arizona Republic. The Phoenix Suns have been asking Phoenix to update its city-owned arena for years, and late last year, they brokered a deal that would have the city paying $150 million and the Suns paying $80 million. Unsurprisingly to me (but apparently surprising to the team and the city), the public was…

Posted by on January 18, 2019 in National Basketball Association


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Elephant in the Room

Interview with Bloomberg News. / NFL Draft Graphics. Given your expertise in NFL and its CBA, curious if you might be able to do some rough calculations on how much Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence might be losing out on by having to spend at least the next two seasons in college before being eligible for the NFL…

Posted by on January 10, 2019 in National Football League, NCAA Football


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NCAA-F VRX Bowl Season Picks

Updated V-Power Picks 1/7/19. Updated V-Power Picks 1/1/19. Updated V-Power Picks 12/30/18. Updated V-Power Picks 12/27/18. Updated V-Power Picks 12/26/18. Updated V-Power Picks 12/24/18. Updated FBS V-Power Results 12/21/18. FBS V-Power Bowl Picks. V-power picks: Slow start. Taking and Giving Points. Bowl-Season Picks and Point Spreads. FBS Logit Power Picks 12/2/18  

Posted by on January 7, 2019 in NCAA Football


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Pac-12 For Sale

Interview with Inside Higher Ed./ Pac-12 NewCo. I wondered if you had some time to hop on the phone today to chat about this: https://www.oregonlive.com/sports/oregonian/john_canzano/2018/12/want-to-buy-a-stake-in-the-pac-12-conference-its-exploring-taking-on-private-equity-partners.html The idea of a private investor in the Pac-12 (nonprofit) is interesting to me. Also happy to accept your thoughts by email. Pac-12 NewCo. sounds interesting but I doubt the plan…

Posted by on January 4, 2019 in NCAA Football


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Panther Power

Interview with Charlotte Observer. -What would you say are the biggest advantages/opportunities of moving practice facilities (adjacent to BofA Stadium) and offices (inside stadium) to somewhere else offsite? The Panthers are simply keeping up with the Jonses by building separate practice facilities, which in this case probably involves a covered facility and offices exclusively controlled…

Posted by on December 20, 2018 in National Football League


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Weird Is Good

Leader/Guard—Joe Toye. Weird Is Good—Phillip McGloin

Posted by on December 19, 2018 in NCAA Basketball


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Rays Ball Park Limbo

Interview with Tampa Bay Times. Stadium deals in MLB and NFL.pdf I wondered if you would be willing to give some perspective on the collapse of the Rays deal. The questions I have are: Does this look like a play by the Rays to get a better deal? Yes. These moves/threats are all part of…

Posted by on December 12, 2018 in Major League Baseball


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CFP Playoff Power Picks

Power 5 Conference Playoff Picks. FBS Logit Power Picks 11/25/18. FBS Logit Power Picks 11/18/18. FBS Logit Power Picks 11/11/18. CFP Rankings ESPN Playoff Predictor  

Posted by on November 25, 2018 in NCAA Football


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The Puck Stops Here

Interview with AP / USAToday.  Followup AP / Second Class Settlement? We are hoping someone like yourself can walk us through how the NFL and NHL concussion settlements are different and why. The NFL agreed to a billion-dollar settlement. It seems the NHL players got just $19 million (we are still working to confirm that number on the record,…

Posted by on November 12, 2018 in National Hockey League


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San Antonio Chargers

Interview with San Antonio Business Journal. Our mayor has indicated that San Antonio leaders should reach out to Los Angeles Chargers ownership, in light of that team’s severe struggles in finding support in the City of Angels. Do you believe there is merit to San Antonio at least initiating dialogue with the Chargers/why? Yes because…

Posted by on November 7, 2018 in National Football League


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MLB Playoff Power Picks

Vroom-Daddy MLB 2018 Postseason Picks Gamma v. Logit MLB Picks ESPN MLB post-season picks

Posted by on September 25, 2018 in Major League Baseball


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Power 4 Super League

Interview with Pittsburgh Post-Gazette 9/6/2018. (pdf) (xls) Pitt made $26.3 million from the ACC in the 2016-17 fiscal year while Connecticut — a former conference mate in the Big East that is now in the American Athletic Conference, a league Pitt may well have ended up in had it not landed in the ACC — made…

Posted by on September 7, 2018 in NCAA Football


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Jerry’s World

Interview with Bloomberg News. Cowboys Stadium 2010. Do you have any estimates on how much Arlington has spent on pro sports since first building the (first) Rangers stadium? My estimates show about $960 million, which include $135 million in bonds for the 1994 Rangers stadium, $325 million for the Cowboys stadium, and $500 million for…

Posted by on August 22, 2018 in National Football League


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Zoo Effect

Interview with Alabama Media Group (Mobile). I wanted to ask you if a city like Mobile (population near 200K, with a regional population over 400K) needs to be more aggressive and focused in addressing new stadium or sports venue construction projects. Or, do you think Mobile is smart by not forking over any taxpayer money…

Posted by on August 22, 2018 in Major League Baseball


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Big League Swap

Interview with Nashville Biz Journal. What makes Nashville a compelling city for a potential MLB team? Why would Manfred include it on his list – however speculative it is? There are 3 basic layers of MLB market potential. The top “automatic” home markets have a market size greater than 2 million TV households (e.g. Atlanta). Second…

Posted by on July 18, 2018 in Major League Baseball


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Sunshine Paradox

Interview with Tampa Tribune. Fan-Age PDF Do you have any perspective on what could be behind the more than 5 percent decline in MLB attendance? The entertainment dollar in the sports industry across the board is becoming very competitive very rapidly. All major sports are experiencing a secular and regional aging in fan demographics. This…

Posted by on July 18, 2018 in Major League Baseball


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What’s in a Name?

Interview with Tampa Bay Times. How much (estimate) could the Rays get for the naming rights of a new ballpark in Tampa? The current going rate for naming rights for MLB Parks in a Tampa sized market is probably in the $8 million to $10 million annual range for a 25-year to 30-year term, and…

Posted by on June 23, 2018 in Major League Baseball


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World Cup of Political Football

Interview with Pacific Standard / (PDF Graphs). Football 365 requote. Direktno requote. In general, what does hosting a World Cup mean for the economy of the host country? Most countries, when vying for the right to host the tournament, tout the influx of tourism dollars and infrastructure investment that will theoretically boost the economy, but is that often…

Posted by on June 20, 2018 in UEFA Football


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The Closing Window

Interview with the New York Times. PDF and Images. Roger Noll of Stanford had some pretty good stuff today on how the Knights’ miraculous run “attenuates the honeymoon effect,” from the typical three-year window for expansion teams in non-traditional hockey markets. 1) Is that something you generally agree with? Yes I mentioned that in print…

Posted by on June 10, 2018 in National Hockey League


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Revolving Revolution

Interview with Columbus Dispatch. Back in 2012, the city and the county purchased what was then a privately held arena, relying on casino tax money to prop up arena operations, repay loans used in the purchase and pay for capital repairs. Those tax receipts have fallen well short of projections, and the arena has no…

Posted by on May 31, 2018 in National Hockey League


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Tamp Em Up Solid

Interview with Tampa Bay Times. Location theory. If the Rays new ballpark has about 600,000 more fans within a 15 mile radius, what might that do to their average attendance? Total MLB attendance remains a variable function of market size, venue capacity and team quality, but according to this simple location theory metric, an increase…

Posted by on May 24, 2018 in Major League Baseball


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Piece of Integrity

Interview with CBS. I am writing on integrity fees. Are the pro leagues and NCAA entitled to them?  Is so, what should they cover? The Big 4 professional leagues and the 2 quasi-professional NCAA revenue sports are seeking a piece of sports betting action, and it can easily be argued that they are not necessarily…

Posted by on May 17, 2018 in National Football League


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Bargain Price

Interview with Charlotte Observer. (Sporting News) -What benefit might David Tepper see in bringing in minority owners if he technically doesn’t need any (financially speaking)? David Tepper will be certainly more fan friendly and way more accessible to the media than “Mister” Richardson. In terms of the overall Panthers fan experience this should be a positive…

Posted by on May 16, 2018 in National Football League


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Sure Thing

Interview with Las Vegas Sun. -Is downsizing new stadiums projects and increasing technology and amenities the best way to comate the ever improving at-home game experience? Welcome to the new NFL where smart luxury stadiums are economically designed to maximize team profit rather than fan welfare. The general downsizing trend in the NFL is consistent…

Posted by on May 8, 2018 in National Football League


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Yum Center Reboot

Interview with Louisville Courier-Journal. Top 10 Revenues and Salaries. I’m just wondering about what the Yum Center will be like and how it will be perceived by the community in 30 years, when the bonds are scheduled to be paid off. Can you weigh in with any perspective? The new luxury arenas have at least…

Posted by on May 4, 2018 in NCAA Basketball


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Mystery Ticket Shortage

Interview with Toronto Star. We’re revealing that MLSE has designated an unknown number of season ticket holders “commercial resellers” and marked up their tickets 30% for next season. They also offer to cancel the markup if the ticket holder joins a “preferred reseller program” which hasn’t been well defined yet, but many suspect will involve…

Posted by on April 11, 2018 in National Hockey League


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Pay for Play

Complete Interview (XL) with Bloomberg Law. The proposed superficial symptom-treating political solution to the economic exploitation of athletes at all levels is logistically problematic and probably counterproductive. The economic problem of exploitation of athletes derives directly from the vertically integrated monopsony power of the NCAA but more deeply from the monopsony power of the big boy…

Posted by on April 7, 2018 in NCAA Football


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Cinderella Paradox

Interview with CBS.  According to the U.S. Department of Education, the school’s athletic revenue and expenses were $13.8 million as of its latest school year.  Do you find it strange that the numbers match up perfectly? This is common accounting practice. Are most of the benefits that Cinderella schools realize fleeting? Yes, but there is…

Posted by on March 28, 2018 in NCAA Basketball


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Bottom Big 10

Interview with Bloomberg News. B10 revenue splits. The B10 poverty cycle is the positive feedback loop from winning to talent to revenues to expenditures for the bottom 7 programs. The success cycle is the opposite talent revenue loop for the top 7 programs. This is the major problem in almost all sports where the rich…

Posted by on March 28, 2018 in NCAA Football


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Folie de Mars

Interview with French financial paper Challenges. March madness in NCAA college basketball occurs in a natural US sports entertainment vacuum every Spring since the early 1980s. The lack luster NFL free agency period (transfer window) is followed by only a few true US football fanatics, MLB regular season that usually begins after the first of April…

Posted by on March 28, 2018 in NCAA Basketball


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Monopoly Money

Interview with Charlotte Observer. — How much of a concern are the upcoming CBA and TV contracts for a possible buyer of an NFL franchise?  The strength of sports union varies inversely with the length of the CBA. Largely because of the relatively short careers of its players (3.3 years), the NFLPA is by far…

Posted by on March 23, 2018 in National Football League


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League of Ordinary Gentlemen

Interview with Crains Business NY. NFL Economics Stat Pack.  Clearly there are threats to the NFL’s business model as it now stands. Rights costs are generally out of synch with ratings and ad revenue, and the dangers of CTE could push young players and their parents away from the game in the coming years. My…

Posted by on March 8, 2018 in National Football League


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Goldman Goes Global

Interview with Dutch Newspaper,  Algemeen Dagblad (AD Netherlands) Below is the Feyenoord Stadium deal as best I can gather from the internet compared to the most recent NFL stadium deal in Las Vegas for the Oakland Raiders. Goldman Sachs was also the original lead bank on the Raiders deal but pulled out probably due to internal…

Posted by on March 7, 2018 in UEFA Football


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Devil in the Details

Interview with Austin Biz Journal. MLS Stadium Deals Does the $400 million ‘community benefit’ impact over the club’s first 25 years seem plausible given other MLS stadium impacts? What supplemental information from the team/MLS would be needed to determine an economic impact? This is impossible to tell without seeing the numbers. Impact studies usually if…

Posted by on March 5, 2018 in Major League Soccer


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Yum Center Boondoggle

Interview with Louisville Courier-Journal. I’m trying to get a sense of whether Louisville’s financing plan for its arena is similar to/out of line with what has been done with other arenas. Kentucky’s auditor noted a year or so ago that ¾ of the arena’s revenue comes from taxpayers, through either TIF proceeds or a yearly…

Posted by on February 21, 2018 in NCAA Basketball


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Checkers or Chess

Interview with Arizona Republic. A state bill here in AZ that would have Arizona join a national compact forbidding the use of taxpayer money for new professional sports facilities or renovations to existing ones. The compact would not take effect until 24 other states adopted it, the goal being that sports teams could no longer…

Posted by on February 12, 2018 in National Football League


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Super Bowl High

Interview with Philadelphia Biz Report.  I am hoping to get a comment from you on what (finally) winning a Super Bowl will do for the valuation of the Philadelphia Eagles. In the short run, NFL values are a simple function of market size and the certainty of cash flow from luxury seat cash cow venues….

Posted by on February 5, 2018 in National Football League


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All-Star Gambit

Interview with Charlotte Biz Journal. I’m writing about the one-year mark before the NBA All-Star Game is played here in Charlotte. The impact estimates are between $60 million and $100 million and I’m fairly sure you have questioned the credibility of such estimates. My questions for you: what do you think a more realistic value…

Posted by on February 5, 2018 in National Basketball Association


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Pay Me Now or Pay Me Later

Interview with NY Daily News. 1. Tom Brady is widely regarded as the best player in history at the most important position in all of sports. Yet over 18 seasons, he’s only been the highest-paid QB in the NFL one time (according to salary cap hit). And in six of the past seven seasons, as…

Posted by on February 4, 2018 in National Football League


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Mobile Will Be Fine

Interview with AL.com. Plenty has been written about and discussed on how relocations are often not a bad thing for the losing cities, but what about minor league relocations? Are these often a bad deal for the winning cities because of the expectations of economic development and synergy that supposedly accompanies a new stadium? Or,…

Posted by on February 1, 2018 in Major League Baseball


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Keep Pounding Carolina

Interview with Charlotte Observer. Keep pounding, Carolina. Given the current ownership structure of the Panthers and ongoing renovations (and lease agreements) at BOA, the new majority ownership partner will probably be from or have strong financial ties to sweet home Carolina, and the Panthers are not likely to engage a credible franchise-relocation stadium-extortion game for…

Posted by on January 29, 2018 in National Football League


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Golden Knights Rising

Interview with Bleacher Report. Are you surprised by the fan support this year? In the past, you’ve referred to Vegas as a “sham” market. Obviously the attendance success shouldn’t change the economic makeup of the city, but do you still stick by this or is there more heft behind them than you originally thought? Should…

Posted by on January 24, 2018 in National Hockey League


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Panthers Partners

Interview with Charlotte Observer. I am looking at the limited partners who are part of the ownership group with Jerry Richardson and explaining how these partnerships can work. My understanding is that Jerry clearly runs the show, although these partners still own a significant stake. I was wondering if you might have thoughts on how…

Posted by on December 26, 2017 in National Football League


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