Posted by John Vrooman on Monday, November 24, 2014 in Major League Soccer.

Interview with Financial Times.

Just wanted to ask you whether growth in interest in the World Cup and men’s national team (plus, the addition of new foreign stars to the MLS) was a breakthrough for soccer in the US.

Unfortunately US interest in the men’s national team peaks with the onset of the World Cup depreciates thereafter. As a result US fan interest cycles in synch with the major international competitions and is never fully internalized in our domestic league(s).

The breakthrough in US soccer is still probably a generation away. There are no lower division player development systems connected to MLS and there is no relegation or promotion in the US scheme. MLS is soon expanding to over 20 clubs but the fan appreciation remains that of a boutique sport followed mostly by a limited but growing demographic of European and Latin American immigrants.

Not unlike the way in which Rupert Murdoch’s BSkyB transformed the EPL in 1992 and the revenue revolution of the celebrated European football leagues thereafter, the secret to US professional soccer revenue growth appears to be tied to TV rights fees. In spite of new TV rights for the MLS and its aging European imported talent, the TV ratings in the US for MLS still lag far behind those of the more popular English Premier League.

The new development in the US is the competition between Rupert Murdoch’s new FOX Sports 1 and NBC Sports Channel for new live sports programming. This competition has already quadrupled NHL TV rights fees and given the MLS and EPL a significant cable TV presence in the most recent auction.

What else needs to happen before the sport is among the biggest in the country? Can the US team ever win the World Cup?

The revenue ceiling for soccer in the US is probably similar to the NHL the fourth most popular professional sport in the US. The NFL, MLB and NBA have player development roots that extend throughout the fabric of the US. There is not much room at the top.

To see the future MLS prospects simply compare the annual TV rights fees of the major sports leagues:  NFL $6.58 billion, EPL $2.68 billion, NBA $2.66 billion, MLB $1.55 billion; NHL $630 million; MLS $90 million. The Big 3 sports provide major if not insurmountable competition for pro soccer in the US, and the revenue growth of the MLS is similar to continental drift.

There are three keys to the development of domestic soccer in the US: 1. Player development extending through a comprehensive minor league system suitable for promotion and relegation; 2. TV rights explosion on the magnitudes of European football; 3. Match-day attendance extending beyond the immigrant demographic and provincial acceptance along the East and West Coasts.  It is also important for a MLS clubs to conquer the CONCACAF Champions League before even thinking about competing on the European club league level. The economic model of the MLS also needs to evolve from an infant industry league ownership into single club ownership with modest revenue sharing. Unfortunately all of these pre-conditions are also evolving in synch with continental drift.

In spite of all of the challenges facing domestic club competition and league development in the US, “expect amazing.” It is entirely possible, if not likely given the nature of the tournament process, that the US could contend for a World Cup by Qatar 2022.

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