Posted by John Vrooman on Wednesday, May 31, 2017 in National Hockey League.

Interview with La Presse 5/31/17

Perfect Storm Graphics

 This last decade has been a slow developing perfect storm for the Smashville Preds, both on and off the ice. The confluence of favorable events began with a last ditch local ownership flip in 2007-08 and a recommitment to keeping the Preds in a non-traditional sun-belt midmarket, located smack in the middle of SEC/NFL football heaven.

 After Jim Basille failed to buy the club and move it to Hamilton in 2007, I wrote an op-ed in the Tennessean entitled “When the Preds win we all win,” which argued that the Nashville Preds were not really going anywhere anytime soon and ended with an appeal to the down-home country side of music city:

 “Hockey is unique because it is a self-policing game. Sooner or later all problems are handled internally by the players on the ice. There is something very Southern about that self-reliance.  Southerners haven’t grown up skating on frozen ponds, but we have grown up taking care of our own business—right down to local ownership. Hello Nashville, lace up your skates—this is our team. This deal still ain’t over ’til it’s over.”

 As shown in the attached graphic, the groundswell of local Preds support begins after the ownership flip to local buyers deep in the heart of the 2007-08 financial collapse. The greatest impact on the season-ticket fan base in the NHL Sun-Belt is comes from sustained regular season excellence combined with post-season success (getting out of the first round).

 The Preds turned the corner in the 2009-10 season, and since building the club on the low-variance post-season philosophy of contractually locking down strong defense and goaltending, the Preds have remained consistent.

 Actual attendance at Bridgestone Arena has levelled because of capacity constraints, but now the Preds can build the depth of the season ticket base and then attract the stability of the corporate client. If the Preds continue to win then their fan-base will begin to resemble the season-ticket stability (consistency) of the more traditional hockey markets.

 Notice in the attached Table that the rise in attendance may have as much to do with the fall of the once mighty NFL Titans as the rise of the Preds.  The Nashville entertainment dollar is very competitive and the Preds have attracted even more fan stability from estranged Titan corporate clients and PSL holders. Nashville is slowly becoming a hockey town.

 The Preds have had to make it through the second round of the playoffs to complete the 180 performance flip. This is where the season-ticket options and local venue revenue kick in and really begin to expand and multiply. Post-season hockey is what it is all about in the land of the NHL bottom line, especially in the sun-belt.

 This recent run (basically a year or so after the new ownership change grey to white in the chart) will have a sustainable impact on the fan base for a couple of seasons. But the key to financial success at the bottom line (especially in the NHL Sun-belt) ultimately resides in the quality of the product on the ice, and that is something that non-traditional sun-belt and traditional original 6 hockey fans can both appreciate.

V