Revenue Sharing: Quest for Certainty

  “We (NFL owners) are a bunch of fat-cat Republicans who vote socialist on football.” —Art Modell, former owner of the NFL Cleveland Browns/Baltimore Ravens “The NFL is a perfect portfolio.” —John Vrooman, The Economist League Think Over the last half-century the NFL has become the most economically powerful sports league in the world largely because it has also…

Posted by John Vrooman on June 11, 2020 in Major League Baseball, National Basketball Association, National Football League, National Hockey League, Sports Econ Blog

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Salary Cap: Monopsony Power Play

Salary Cap Theory / Big 4 Cap History / Cap Graphs / Combo Graphs  / Cap Mechanics / QFV Theory / CBI & Beta Balance / Perfect Game / Two to Tango / Monopsony Power / “In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is.” –Yogi Berra Quid Pro Quo Salary caps in professional sports originated in the 1984-85…

Posted by John Vrooman on April 23, 2020 in Major League Baseball, National Basketball Association, National Football League, National Hockey League, Sports Econ Blog

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Coronaviral Impact

Interview with Wall Street Journal / Toronto Star / AFP /  What sports and what teams do you think are most likely to be financially impacted by fans not attending, or not being allowed to attend games? Hockey? Baseball? Minor leagues? Major leagues? Which sports and teams’ revenue models make them most vulnerable to this type…

Posted by John Vrooman on March 13, 2020 in Major League Baseball, National Basketball Association, National Football League, National Hockey League, Sports Econ Blog

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What’s that Sound?

There’s something happening here What it is ain’t exactly clear… There’s battle lines being drawn Nobody’s right if everybody’s wrong… What a field-day for the heat A thousand people in the street… Paranoia strikes deep Into your life it will creep… We better stop, hey, what’s that sound? Everybody look what’s going down. —Stephen Stills,…

Posted by John Vrooman on February 20, 2020 in Major League Baseball, Sports Econ Blog

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MLB Post Season Chances

Astros World Series Chances: Games Won WSN↓ HOU→ 0 1 2 3 0 67.7% 79.6% 89.9% 97.0% 1 50.9% 65.3% 80.1% 92.7% 2 30.8% 44.6% 62.3% 82.6% 3 11.6% 19.8% 34.0% 58.3% Nationals World Series Chances: Games Won WSN↓ HOU→ 0 1 2 3 0 32.3% 20.4% 10.1% 3.0% 1 49.1% 34.7% 19.9% 7.3% 2 69.2% 55.4% 37.7%…

Posted by John Vrooman on October 30, 2019 in Major League Baseball, Sports Econ Blog

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Failure to Perform

Interview with Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The basic idea is the Pirates struggling right now and whether the city of Pittsburgh has any obligation to step in or what, if anything, can be done about their situation. I have three questions I was hoping you could answer, if you didn’t mind. 1. Do professional sports franchises that…

Posted by John Vrooman on October 9, 2019 in Major League Baseball, Sports Econ Blog

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MLB V-Power Gamma Ranking

V-Power Rankings (Pythagorean gamma) Full 2019 Season. V-Power Rankings (Pythagorean gamma) 9/9/1 V-Power Rankings (Pythagorean gamma) 9/23/19. V-Power Rankings (Pythagorean gamma) 9/9/1 V-Power Rankings (Pythagorean gamma) 9/16/19 . V-Power Rankings (Pythagorean gamma) 9/9/19 . V-Man Pythagorean Gamma Labor Day Rankings  V-Man Pythagorean Gamma Rankings 8/14/19. Baseball Reference. V-Man Logit and Gamma (Pythagorean) MLB Power Rankings at the All-Star Break….

Posted by John Vrooman on September 30, 2019 in Major League Baseball

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Theory of the Trade Deadline

V-Man Gamma Power Rankings at the Trade Deadline. ESPN Deadline Trade Tracker. Champion Effect / Trade Deadline Theory.

Posted by John Vrooman on July 31, 2019 in Major League Baseball, Sports Econ Blog

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Strike Out Syndrome

Strike Out Epidemic or Reliever Fever? MLB Rule Changes / MLB Press Release. Wapo: Is Velocity Strangling Baseball? 5/2019.  NYT 538: Have Relievers Broken Baseball? 2/2019.  NYT 538: Bullpen Takeover, 8/2014. 

Posted by John Vrooman on May 31, 2019 in Major League Baseball, Sports Econ Blog

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MLB Pythagorean Gamma Rankings

MLB Pythagorean Gamma 4/15/19. MLB VRX Logit Power Rankings 4/15/19.

Posted by John Vrooman on April 16, 2019 in Major League Baseball

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The Going Free Agent Rate

The Going Rate for the 2019 Free Agent (Tier 3) monopoly market. After all is said and done the present values of the 2 deals for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are about the same at around $200 million in 2019. The going rate for appears to be around $7.5 million PV per WAR in large…

Posted by John Vrooman on March 9, 2019 in Major League Baseball, Sports Econ Blog

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Labor Market Twist

Part 2 of Interview with CNBC; Sequel to “The Baseball Way.” Source: Sportsman Leagues. The Going Rate. Harper and Machado Present Value Contracts both $200 million. What kind of revenue sharing does major league baseball need to have to make more teams competitive and as a result make more teams bid more on free agents? Why does…

Posted by John Vrooman on February 23, 2019 in Major League Baseball

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The Baseball Way

Part 1 of Interview with CNBC; Prequel to Labor Market Twist. The GRID. Source: Labor Market Reconsidered. What would you say is the biggest challenge that Major League Baseball has to face this season from a business/ economical perspective? There is no quick and easy demand-side fix for the chronic issues of MLB outliving the demographics of its…

Posted by John Vrooman on February 17, 2019 in Major League Baseball

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Rays Ball Park Limbo

Interview with Tampa Bay Times. Stadium deals in MLB and NFL.pdf I wondered if you would be willing to give some perspective on the collapse of the Rays deal. The questions I have are: Does this look like a play by the Rays to get a better deal? Yes. These moves/threats are all part of…

Posted by John Vrooman on December 12, 2018 in Major League Baseball

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MLB Playoff Power Picks

Vroom-Daddy MLB 2018 Postseason Picks Gamma v. Logit MLB Picks ESPN MLB post-season picks

Posted by John Vrooman on September 25, 2018 in Major League Baseball

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Zoo Effect

Interview with Alabama Media Group (Mobile). I wanted to ask you if a city like Mobile (population near 200K, with a regional population over 400K) needs to be more aggressive and focused in addressing new stadium or sports venue construction projects. Or, do you think Mobile is smart by not forking over any taxpayer money…

Posted by John Vrooman on August 22, 2018 in Major League Baseball

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Big League Swap

Interview with Nashville Biz Journal. What makes Nashville a compelling city for a potential MLB team? Why would Manfred include it on his list – however speculative it is? There are 3 basic layers of MLB market potential. The top “automatic” home markets have a market size greater than 2 million TV households (e.g. Atlanta). Second…

Posted by John Vrooman on July 18, 2018 in Major League Baseball

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Sunshine Paradox

Interview with Tampa Tribune. Fan-Age PDF Do you have any perspective on what could be behind the more than 5 percent decline in MLB attendance? The entertainment dollar in the sports industry across the board is becoming very competitive very rapidly. All major sports are experiencing a secular and regional aging in fan demographics. This…

Posted by John Vrooman on July 18, 2018 in Major League Baseball

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What’s in a Name?

Interview with Tampa Bay Times. How much (estimate) could the Rays get for the naming rights of a new ballpark in Tampa? The current going rate for naming rights for MLB Parks in a Tampa sized market is probably in the $8 million to $10 million annual range for a 25-year to 30-year term, and…

Posted by John Vrooman on June 23, 2018 in Major League Baseball

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Tamp Em Up Solid

Interview with Tampa Bay Times. Location theory. If the Rays new ballpark has about 600,000 more fans within a 15 mile radius, what might that do to their average attendance? Total MLB attendance remains a variable function of market size, venue capacity and team quality, but according to this simple location theory metric, an increase…

Posted by John Vrooman on May 24, 2018 in Major League Baseball

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Mobile Will Be Fine

Interview with AL.com. Plenty has been written about and discussed on how relocations are often not a bad thing for the losing cities, but what about minor league relocations? Are these often a bad deal for the winning cities because of the expectations of economic development and synergy that supposedly accompanies a new stadium? Or,…

Posted by John Vrooman on February 1, 2018 in Major League Baseball

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Perfect Balance

Interview with FOX Business. Hoping you can send over a few thoughts via email for a quick piece comparing the World Series ratings to the NFL’s current struggles. -Are strong World Series ratings (despite overall ratings slowdown in sports) evidence that live events are still a major draw? Yes, MLB has found the optimal competitive…

Posted by John Vrooman on July 6, 2017 in Major League Baseball

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How Not to Build a Ball Park

Interview with Tampa Bay Times. I am researching a piece on what lessons the Rays could learn from the mistakes made with Marlins Park. I don’t know if you are familiar with the issues. Some of the problems I’ve heard about are low crowds, poor location and a bad deal for taxpayers. Anything that you…

Posted by John Vrooman on May 1, 2016 in Major League Baseball

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Empty Threats

Interview with Tampa Tribune. Bad news and good news. The bad news is that these veiled and not so veiled relocation threats extorting public concessions are standard operating procedure by all of the major sports league cartels. In this case the new MLB commissioner is following the usual old script written by a league of…

Posted by John Vrooman on January 28, 2015 in Major League Baseball

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Baseball Capitalism

Interview with Pacific Standard.  I’m writing a story on the future for Cuban baseball, now that the embargo has been lifted. I’m wondering what this will mean for the MLB? Do you foresee a huge influx of Cuban talent now? What about the relocation of a floundering team? And from an economics standpoint, what do…

Posted by John Vrooman on December 23, 2014 in Major League Baseball

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