John's blog posts
Revenue Sharing: Quest for Certainty
“We (NFL owners) are a bunch of fat-cat Republicans who vote socialist on football.” —Art Modell, former owner of the NFL Cleveland Browns/Baltimore Ravens “The NFL is a perfect portfolio.” —John Vrooman, The Economist League Think Over the last half-century the NFL has become the most economically powerful sports league in the world largely because it has also…
Posted by John Vrooman on June 11, 2020 in Major League Baseball, National Basketball Association, National Football League, National Hockey League, Sports Econ Blog
Salary Cap: Monopsony Power Play
Salary Cap Theory / Big 4 Cap History / Cap Graphs / Combo Graphs / Cap Mechanics / QFV Theory / CBI & Beta Balance / Perfect Game / Two to Tango / Monopsony Power / “In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is.” –Yogi Berra Quid Pro Quo Salary caps in professional sports originated in the 1984-85…
Posted by John Vrooman on April 23, 2020 in Major League Baseball, National Basketball Association, National Football League, National Hockey League, Sports Econ Blog
NFL Draft: Show Me the Money
Round 1 Draft Projections 2020 PDF / 2020 NFL CBA Changes / 2020 NFL CBA / Inverse Square Root Rule / Draftwire / ESPN / Economic Structure / Bloomberg / 2020 NFL Draft Projected Player Contracts Round 1 ($M) PICK TEAM PLAYER POS COLLEGE TOTAL BONUS 2020 CAP 1 CIN Joe Burrow QB LSU $36.97 $24.71 $6.72 2 WAS Chase Young EDGE…
Posted by John Vrooman on April 10, 2020 in National Football League, Sports Econ Blog
Olympic Game Changer
Interview with Slate / PDF / IOC Letter / COVID-19 in Japan / BBC / NYT / UpShot / Nippon.com / An Olympics postponement is unprecedented. What is your gut reaction to this? Can Tokyo pull it off? Could costs threaten to spiral out of control? The spreading Coronaviral pandemic is an Olympic game-changer, and all of the available options are costly…
Posted by John Vrooman on April 3, 2020 in Sports Econ Blog
Coronaviral Impact
Interview with Wall Street Journal / Toronto Star / AFP / What sports and what teams do you think are most likely to be financially impacted by fans not attending, or not being allowed to attend games? Hockey? Baseball? Minor leagues? Major leagues? Which sports and teams’ revenue models make them most vulnerable to this type…
Posted by John Vrooman on March 13, 2020 in Major League Baseball, National Basketball Association, National Football League, National Hockey League, Sports Econ Blog
Vroom-Daddy Bracketology
Vroom-Daddy Rankings 3/9/20 / Basketball Reference / NCAA / CBS / ESPN / Vroom-Daddy Rankings 3/2/20 / Vroom-Daddy Rankings 2/25/20 / Vroom-Daddy Rankings 2/18/20 / Vroom-Daddy Rankings 2/9/20 / Vroom-Daddy Rankings 1/6/20 / Vroom-Daddy Logit Rankings 12/14/19 /
Posted by John Vrooman on March 9, 2020 in NCAA Basketball, Sports Econ Blog
NHL Logit Power Ranking
NHL V-Power Logit Rank 3/6/20 / Hockey Reference. NHL V-Power Logit Rank 2/27/20 / NHL V-Power Logit Rank 2/7/20 / NHL V-Power Logit Rank 12/20/19 /
Posted by John Vrooman on March 6, 2020 in National Hockey League, Sports Econ Blog
NBA Logit Power Ranking
NBA V-Power Logit Ranking 3/5/20 / Basketball Reference NBA V-Power Logit Ranking 2/26/20 / NBA V-Power Logit Ranking 2/7/20 / NBA V-Power Logit Ranking 1/7/20 / NBA V-Power Logit Ranking 12/4/19 /
Posted by John Vrooman on March 5, 2020 in National Basketball Association, Sports Econ Blog
What’s that Sound?
There’s something happening here What it is ain’t exactly clear… There’s battle lines being drawn Nobody’s right if everybody’s wrong… What a field-day for the heat A thousand people in the street… Paranoia strikes deep Into your life it will creep… We better stop, hey, what’s that sound? Everybody look what’s going down. —Stephen Stills,…
Posted by John Vrooman on February 20, 2020 in Major League Baseball, Sports Econ Blog
Blind Sided
Interview with Toronto Globe & Mail / Interview / NFL Revenue Growth / Economic Structure of NFL (PDF) I’m a regular reader of Prof. Vrooman’s blog and was wondering if he might have a few minutes today (Tuesday) or tomorrow to talk about the current state of the NFL from an economic perspective. I was hoping to get…
Posted by John Vrooman on January 31, 2020 in National Football League, Sports Econ Blog
Sketchy Business
Interview with Fortune Magazine 1/30/20 / Interview with graphics. I’m a reporter for Fortune currently working on a story for our upcoming magazine issue that focuses on Major League Soccer’s rapid economic and geographical expansion in recent years. In particular, I’m focusing on the extent to which the league has grown its footprint, how team values have reportedly…
Posted by John Vrooman on January 30, 2020 in Major League Soccer, Sports Econ Blog
Monopoly Unchecked
Interview with HBO’s “Real Sports with Briant Gumbel.” NFL Economic Structure / NFL Financials. Between us (I wont quote you…it’s just to get me thinking on some things): Would you say that American sports leagues are unchecked monopolies, not subject to oversight or regulation (like most monopolies)? Yes, the NFL is an unregulated (if not legislated…
Posted by John Vrooman on January 27, 2020 in National Football League, Sports Econ Blog
Super Bowl Boomerang
Interview NPR/Miami: I’m a reporter-producer with WLRN, the NPR member station in Miami. This year’s Super Bowl will be held here, and the NFL has made the environment a focus in the lead-up to the big game. I’d like to consider this relationship for a possible audio feature story airing the week before the Super Bowl….
Posted by John Vrooman on January 20, 2020 in National Football League, Sports Econ Blog
Super Bowl LIV Chances
Vroom-Daddy NFL Playoff Chances 2020 Wild-card weekend FAV PROB PTS* Bills at Texans | Jan. 4, 3:35 p.m. ET | ESPN/ABC BUF 55.3% -1.7 Seahawks at Eagles | Jan. 5, 3:40 p.m. ET | NBC SEA 57.4% -2.4 Titans at Patriots | Jan. 4, 7:15 p.m. ET | CBS NEP 70.4% -7.0 Vikings at Saints | Jan. 5, 12:05 p.m. ET…
Posted by John Vrooman on January 20, 2020 in National Football League, Sports Econ Blog
CFP Championship Chances
Vroom-Daddy CFP Championship Chances 2020 School Conf PF PA SOS SRS ODDS PROB PTS LSU SEC (West) 48.9 21.6 5.52 24.9 13.4 57.2% (2.83) Clemson ACC (Atl) 45.3 11.5 1.20 22.1 10.0 42.8% 2.83 CFP Final V-Man Rankings 1/4/20 / Football Reference / NCAA CFP V-Power Rank 12/9/2019 / College Football Playoff. CFP Conference Playoff Chances 12/6/19./ Vegas CFP Betting Lines. NCAA CFP…
Posted by John Vrooman on January 4, 2020 in NCAA Football, Sports Econ Blog
Expansion Derby
Interview with Charlotte Business Journal / Atlanta Business Chronicle / Expansion Derby. MLS is going to name Charlotte as its next expansion city with an announcement Tuesday. Carolina Panthers owner is expected to pay $300 million to $325 million for a team that will share the NFL stadium (with modifications) and likely begin playing in 2021. I’m hoping…
Posted by John Vrooman on December 16, 2019 in Major League Soccer, Sports Econ Blog
Turkey Day
Interview with Athletic. Graphs pdf. Graphs XL. I’m writing a story for publication ahead of next week’s NFL Thanksgiving games, taking a look at the history and importance of those games for the Dallas Cowboys and the Detroit Lions as the long-time hosts. One of the primary questions I’m trying to answer is the financial importance…
Posted by John Vrooman on November 21, 2019 in National Football League, Sports Econ Blog
Winner’s Curse
Interview with Fox Business / PDF -Traditionally, what has been the NFL’s stance or approach on private equity investments? It seems that the league has preferred to deal with individuals rather than firms in terms of ownership. -Are we approaching a point where the NFL would consider allowing a private equity firm to take a major…
Posted by John Vrooman on November 21, 2019 in National Football League, Sports Econ Blog
MLB Post Season Chances
Astros World Series Chances: Games Won WSN↓ HOU→ 0 1 2 3 0 67.7% 79.6% 89.9% 97.0% 1 50.9% 65.3% 80.1% 92.7% 2 30.8% 44.6% 62.3% 82.6% 3 11.6% 19.8% 34.0% 58.3% Nationals World Series Chances: Games Won WSN↓ HOU→ 0 1 2 3 0 32.3% 20.4% 10.1% 3.0% 1 49.1% 34.7% 19.9% 7.3% 2 69.2% 55.4% 37.7%…
Posted by John Vrooman on October 30, 2019 in Major League Baseball, Sports Econ Blog
Failure to Perform
Interview with Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. The basic idea is the Pirates struggling right now and whether the city of Pittsburgh has any obligation to step in or what, if anything, can be done about their situation. I have three questions I was hoping you could answer, if you didn’t mind. 1. Do professional sports franchises that…
Posted by John Vrooman on October 9, 2019 in Major League Baseball, Sports Econ Blog
MLB V-Power Gamma Ranking
V-Power Rankings (Pythagorean gamma) Full 2019 Season. V-Power Rankings (Pythagorean gamma) 9/9/1 V-Power Rankings (Pythagorean gamma) 9/23/19. V-Power Rankings (Pythagorean gamma) 9/9/1 V-Power Rankings (Pythagorean gamma) 9/16/19 . V-Power Rankings (Pythagorean gamma) 9/9/19 . V-Man Pythagorean Gamma Labor Day Rankings V-Man Pythagorean Gamma Rankings 8/14/19. Baseball Reference. V-Man Logit and Gamma (Pythagorean) MLB Power Rankings at the All-Star Break….
Posted by John Vrooman on September 30, 2019 in Major League Baseball
ACC Network Goes Live
Interview with FOX Business. PDF. FOX: We’re working on a story today about ESPN’s launch of the ACC Network and what it could mean for the balance of power in college sports, in terms of revenue and other benefits. Would love to get your thoughts on the network’s financial prospects and if it could boost…
Posted by John Vrooman on August 24, 2019 in NCAA Football, Sports Econ Blog
Brotherhood of Running Backs
Interview with Bloomberg Law. Lexology. NFL Player expenses by position in 2019. Spotrac. I’m a reporter with Bloomberg Law and did a brief story this morning on the potential for running backs to split from the NFL Players Association. I’d love to update the story with some more context on why running backs might want to split from the NFLPA…
Posted by John Vrooman on August 9, 2019 in National Football League, Sports Econ Blog
Theory of the Trade Deadline
V-Man Gamma Power Rankings at the Trade Deadline. ESPN Deadline Trade Tracker. Champion Effect / Trade Deadline Theory.
Posted by John Vrooman on July 31, 2019 in Major League Baseball, Sports Econ Blog
Expansion Game
Interview with Charlotte Business Journal. MLS Expansion Game: Past Present and Future. Could you share a thought or two on what you think Charlotte’s chances are for landing a team and what you think the odds are for it working here? Any hurdles you see? Here’s a quick comparison chart of the MLS hopefuls with odds…
Posted by John Vrooman on July 9, 2019 in Major League Soccer, Sports Econ Blog
Cinderella Blues
Interview with St. Louis Biz Journal / Complete Interview with Graphics / Graphics XLS. Blues into the black graphics / Follow-up graphics XLS. Broadly speaking, what does a Stanley Cup championship mean for an NHL franchise financially? The first Stanley Cup Championship for the Blues will pay the bills and sell plenty of t-shirts, but in the relatively risky business of…
Posted by John Vrooman on June 15, 2019 in National Hockey League, Sports Econ Blog
We the New North
Toronto Star 6/3/19 / Complete Interview: We the New North (PDF with Graphics) / Graphics XLS. Globe & Mail 6/14/19 / Article PDF / Complete Interview (PDF with Graphics) Globe & Mail–Will the Championship directly or immediately affect the team’s valuation? The first Canadian NBA Championship for the Raptors will certainly pay the bills and sell plenty of We…
Posted by John Vrooman on June 5, 2019 in National Basketball Association, National Hockey League, Sports Econ Blog
Strike Out Syndrome
Strike Out Epidemic or Reliever Fever? MLB Rule Changes / MLB Press Release. Wapo: Is Velocity Strangling Baseball? 5/2019. NYT 538: Have Relievers Broken Baseball? 2/2019. NYT 538: Bullpen Takeover, 8/2014.
Posted by John Vrooman on May 31, 2019 in Major League Baseball, Sports Econ Blog
Tanking the NBA Draft
Interview with NPR Marketplace. NBA tanking graphic. Actual Draft Order. I’m working on a story about the NBA lottery, but not really the normal sports story. We’re looking at why the NBA does it this way, why people think it’s rigged, and what the economic gains of having the number one pick are (or could be). The…
Posted by John Vrooman on May 14, 2019 in National Basketball Association, Sports Econ Blog
Skating into the Black
Interview with Columbus Business First. -What’s the difference, economic impact-wise and team finances-wise, of the Predators making the Stanley Cup Final, as opposed to just having a moderately successful playoff run? The rule of thumb in the NHL is that clubs breakeven on average over the regular season, and then generate positive in the black…
Posted by John Vrooman on May 9, 2019 in National Hockey League, Sports Econ Blog
On Thin Ice
The big market clubs in NYC (MSG), LA (Staples) and Chicago (United) are noticeably absent from the NHL and NBA playoffs. Toronto Maple Leafs were knocked out in the first round of the playoffs and they haven’t won a Stanley Cup in 50 years. Why are high revenue clubs not dominating the NBA and NHL as expected? See 2018 NHL…
Posted by John Vrooman on May 8, 2019 in National Basketball Association, National Hockey League, Sports Econ Blog
Post-Season Puzzle
Theory of the Big Dance. My sh*t doesn’t work in the playoffs. My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is f***ing luck. —Billy Beane, GM Oakland Athletics In the first round of the current 2019 NHL playoffs five of the eight higher seeded teams with home ice advantage lost…
Posted by John Vrooman on April 28, 2019 in National Basketball Association, National Hockey League, Sports Econ Blog
NFL Draft: Inverse Square Root Rule
Vrooman’s Inverse Square Root Rule in 2019 Draft. In Bloomberg News. Origins of Vrooman’s Rule. Inverse Square-root Rule
Posted by John Vrooman on April 25, 2019 in National Football League, Sports Econ Blog
MLB Pythagorean Gamma Rankings
MLB Pythagorean Gamma 4/15/19. MLB VRX Logit Power Rankings 4/15/19.
Posted by John Vrooman on April 16, 2019 in Major League Baseball
NBA Playoff Match-ups Round 1
NBA VRX Playoff Chances Round 1. NBA VRX Power Pix 3/27/19. NBA VRX Power Pix 3/7/19. NBA VRX Power Picks 2/24/19 NBA VRX Power Picks 1/28/19. NBA VRX Power Rankings 1/15/19. NBA Power Picks 12/14/18 Basketball Reference Playoff Probabilities
Posted by John Vrooman on April 11, 2019 in National Basketball Association
Both Ends against the Middle
Interview with Charlotte Business Journal. These are numbers from South Carolina Department of Commerce estimating impact of a Panthers training headquarters being built there. Can you give me your perspective on this? The simple problem with the superficial politics of pie in the sky promises of regional impact studies is that they usually imply that…
Posted by John Vrooman on April 8, 2019 in National Football League
NHL Playoff Match-ups Round 1
NHL Playoff Probabilities 4/7/19 NHL VRX Power Pix 3/27/19. NHL VRX Power Pix 3/7/19. NHL VRX Power Picks 2/24/19. NHL VRX Power Picks 2/7/19. NHL VRX Picks: 1/16/19. NHL-V-Power Picks:12/20/18.
Posted by John Vrooman on April 7, 2019 in National Hockey League
VRX Final 4 Match-ups
NCAA Final 4 Win Probability Matrix 2019 School (Seed) Virginia Michigan State Texas Tech Auburn Virginia (2) … 51.5% 57.5% 59.0% Michigan State (6) 48.5% … 56.0% 57.5% Texas Tech (9) 42.5% 44.0% … 51.5% Auburn (18) 41.0% 42.5% 48.5% … P(win) row v column. John Vrooman/Vanderbilt University Win Probability Matrix. Final 4 VRX Quick Pix / Final 4 VRX…
Posted by John Vrooman on April 6, 2019 in NCAA Basketball
The Going Free Agent Rate
The Going Rate for the 2019 Free Agent (Tier 3) monopoly market. After all is said and done the present values of the 2 deals for Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are about the same at around $200 million in 2019. The going rate for appears to be around $7.5 million PV per WAR in large…
Posted by John Vrooman on March 9, 2019 in Major League Baseball, Sports Econ Blog
Azteca West
Interview with San Diego Union-Tribune. I’m working on a story about SDSU’s Mission Valley stadium with the news hook that it’s signed a $250M contract with Clark Construction Company. I was hoping to pick your brain on a few things. – What do you make of Clark Construction Company? What does the selection signal, if…
Posted by John Vrooman on March 2, 2019 in NCAA Football
Labor Market Twist
Part 2 of Interview with CNBC; Sequel to “The Baseball Way.” Source: Sportsman Leagues. The Going Rate. Harper and Machado Present Value Contracts both $200 million. What kind of revenue sharing does major league baseball need to have to make more teams competitive and as a result make more teams bid more on free agents? Why does…
Posted by John Vrooman on February 23, 2019 in Major League Baseball
The Baseball Way
Part 1 of Interview with CNBC; Prequel to Labor Market Twist. The GRID. Source: Labor Market Reconsidered. What would you say is the biggest challenge that Major League Baseball has to face this season from a business/ economical perspective? There is no quick and easy demand-side fix for the chronic issues of MLB outliving the demographics of its…
Posted by John Vrooman on February 17, 2019 in Major League Baseball
Super Bowl LIII VRX Pick
NFL VRX Super Bowl Pick 1/22/19. NFL VRX Round 3 Picks 1/14/19. NFL VRX Round 2 Picks 1/11/19. NFL V-Power Picks 1/6/19. NFL V-Power Picks 1/1/19. NFL Power Picks 12/25/18. NFL Power Picks 12/18/18. NFL Power Picks 12/11/18. NFL Power Picks 12/4/18. NFL Power Picks 11/27/18. Upshot: Playoff Simulator. NFL Mid-Season Power Picks 2018.
Posted by John Vrooman on February 1, 2019 in National Football League
Money for Nothin’
Interview with Charlotte Biz Journal. L.A. All-Star Game Impact Study 2018. I’m working on some stories about the NBA All-Star Game coming here this month and wanted to ask about a couple of items. *The first is, the NBA estimates 150,000 visitors during the weekend of events. What do you think of that estimate given…
Posted by John Vrooman on February 1, 2019 in National Basketball Association
Rival Leagues Rising
Interview with TSN (The Sports Network) . What factors have led to the the creation/planning of at least three alternative professional football leagues — AAF, XFL, FFL? The NFL is a stone cold monopoly league (one seller) in the fans product market (gate and media) and monopsony (one buyer) cartel in the players’ labor market. The…
Posted by John Vrooman on January 31, 2019 in National Football League
Nothing More or Less
Interview with Arizona Republic. The Phoenix Suns have been asking Phoenix to update its city-owned arena for years, and late last year, they brokered a deal that would have the city paying $150 million and the Suns paying $80 million. Unsurprisingly to me (but apparently surprising to the team and the city), the public was…
Posted by John Vrooman on January 18, 2019 in National Basketball Association
Elephant in the Room
Interview with Bloomberg News. / NFL Draft Graphics. Given your expertise in NFL and its CBA, curious if you might be able to do some rough calculations on how much Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence might be losing out on by having to spend at least the next two seasons in college before being eligible for the NFL…
Posted by John Vrooman on January 10, 2019 in National Football League, NCAA Football
NCAA-F VRX Bowl Season Picks
Updated V-Power Picks 1/7/19. Updated V-Power Picks 1/1/19. Updated V-Power Picks 12/30/18. Updated V-Power Picks 12/27/18. Updated V-Power Picks 12/26/18. Updated V-Power Picks 12/24/18. Updated FBS V-Power Results 12/21/18. FBS V-Power Bowl Picks. V-power picks: Slow start. Taking and Giving Points. Bowl-Season Picks and Point Spreads. FBS Logit Power Picks 12/2/18
Posted by John Vrooman on January 7, 2019 in NCAA Football
Pac-12 For Sale
Interview with Inside Higher Ed./ Pac-12 NewCo. I wondered if you had some time to hop on the phone today to chat about this: https://www.oregonlive.com/sports/oregonian/john_canzano/2018/12/want-to-buy-a-stake-in-the-pac-12-conference-its-exploring-taking-on-private-equity-partners.html The idea of a private investor in the Pac-12 (nonprofit) is interesting to me. Also happy to accept your thoughts by email. Pac-12 NewCo. sounds interesting but I doubt the plan…
Posted by John Vrooman on January 4, 2019 in NCAA Football
Panther Power
Interview with Charlotte Observer. -What would you say are the biggest advantages/opportunities of moving practice facilities (adjacent to BofA Stadium) and offices (inside stadium) to somewhere else offsite? The Panthers are simply keeping up with the Jonses by building separate practice facilities, which in this case probably involves a covered facility and offices exclusively controlled…
Posted by John Vrooman on December 20, 2018 in National Football League
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